My Ohio 2020 U.S. House of Representatives Congressional election predictions

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My Ohio U.S. Congressional predictions 2020:

I don’t have any predictions at this time for Ohio Districts 8 through 12, 14 and 15.

Monday, April 27th, 2020 predictions (notes on predictions on Monday, April 27th, 2020 or Tuesday, April 28th, 2020 will be labeled as such)

District 1: I think Kate Schroder is going to win her Democratic Party primary vs. Nikki Foster.

Schroder has raised $822,028 through April 8th and has spent $718,299.81.

Foster has raised $524,578.39 through April 8th and has spent $471,822.35.

Schroder has spent 87.38% while Foster has spent 89.94%.

Steve Chabot (age 67) is already the Republican nominee and I think he will win re-election again. He has raised $1,679,466.77 through April 8th and has spent $535,722.34. He has spent 31.90%.

Kevin Kahn, a Libertarian Party candidate will come in third place behind whoever the Democrat nominee(s) is/are in the general election barring a revolution or something.

Kahn has raised $2,431.07 through April 8th and has spent just $426.49 which is 17.54%.

Foster has more Twitter followers (12,450) than either of Schroder’s two Twitter accounts combined (3,230).

District 2: Jaime Castle has already advanced to the general election as a Democrat.

I expect Brad Wenstrup (age 61) to easily defeat Robert Harris in the Republican Party primary election and to win the general election.

As of March 31st, Castle has just $22,743.72 cash on hand and as of April 8th Wenstrup has $964,655.33 cash on hand. No data on Robert H. Harris can be found on fec.gov right now as I’m typing this.

District 3: I expect Joyce Beatty (age 70) to defeat Morgan Harper in the Democratic Party primary election.

Although Harper has shown through Facebook, Twitter and Instagram that she has more of a following than Beatty’s Beatty for Congress campaign social media outlets and not Beatty’s U.S. Representative Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

Harper has spent less money than she has received since the start of 2019.

Beatty has actually spent more money than she has received since the start of 2019.

Beatty is actually in the negative numbers from spending since 2019 from the FEC reports but Harper doesn’t have a lot of campaign cash on hand left and has to spend most of it against an opponent she has a long shot to beat in the first place in the primaries.

(Tuesday notes: I’m very interested to see how Harper does vs. Beatty in the primary. From a prediction perspective, this could be something to learn from if Harper does defeat Beatty.)

Republican Mark Richardson is going to defeat Cleophus Dulaney.

Richardson has picked up a lot more Facebook likes and followers than Dulaney has.

Richardson has 76 Twitter followers and 979 Facebook followers on his campaign Facebook page.

Dulaney has 154 Twitter followers and 58 followers on his Congressional campaign Facebook page.

I completely expect Democrat Joyce Beatty to defeat Republican Mark Richardson in the general election.

Right now I still think the Democrats will take this seat in the U.S. House of Representatives even if Beatty somehow loses the primary election.

(Tuesday note: I’m interested to see if the Republican nominee can gain momentum and traction on the Democrat nominee in the two or three months before the November elections.)

District 4: I expect Republican Jim Jordan to get re-elected.

I think Shannon Freshour will defeat Jeffrey Sites in the Democratic Party primary. I expect Mike Larsen to finish in third place in the Democratic Party primary.

(Tuesday notes: Based on Twitter and Facebook alone, Freshour should win, Larsen should come in 2nd place and Sites should finish in 3rd place. Freshour has an Instagram page, Sites has an Instagram page and a YouTube channel and Larsen has neither an Instagram or a YouTube channel after looking at each candidate’s websites.)

(Tuesday notes: Independent candidate Chris Gibbs will likely finish in 3rd place in the general election and Libertarian candidate Steve Perkins will finish in 4th place in the general election assuming there are no write-in candidates for the general election.)

District 5: I expect Republican Bob Latta to get re-elected. Nick Rubando will win the Democratic Party primary over Xavier Carrigan. Gene Redinger will come in 3rd place in the Democratic Party primary.

District 6: Democrat Shawna Roberts will lose to the Republican Party nominee which will be Bill Johnson.

Kenneth Morgan won’t beat Bill Johnson in the Republican Party primary and even if he did I would have to re-look at this Congressional District to see who I think could win it.

District 7: Bob Gibbs, a Republican will easily win re-election at the moment and has already qualified for the general election.

I will probably have to re-evaluate this Congressional District to see if any of Gibbs’ opponents actually have a shot at winning.

Also, Patrick Pikus, a Democrat, and Brandon Lape, a Libertarian, were disqualified.

Quentin Potter, a Democrat, is a write-in candidate.

District 13: Christina Hagan will win the Republican primary. [Tuesday note: I haven’t even looked at this Congressional District very closely or intensely so this prediction could be wrong.]

District 16: Democrat Aaron Godfrey has more Twitter and Facebook followers than Ron Karpus. However, Karpus has more than 4,900 Facebook friends.

Godfrey has raised over $5,500 and from what I can tell, there is no data on fec.gov on how much money Karpus has raised.

[Tuesday notes: Karpus also has an Instagram page and a YouTube channel. I expect Karpus to win the Democratic Party primary only because he has a lot of Facebook friends, a Facebook page, a Twitter page, an Instagram page and a YouTube channel, regardless of how successful that Instagram page and YouTube channel are.]

Republican and former NFL wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez has more Twitter and Facebook followers than Godfrey and Karpus.

So I expect Gonzalez to be re-elected. Gonzalez has raised over 1.5 million dollars in donations from the start of 2019 through April 8th, 2020.

[Tuesday notes: Keith Mundy, a former Democratic Party candidate in the Ohio’s 16th Congressional District, is apparently running for the U.S. Senate in 2022.

He has 379 Twitter followers which is more than Karpus’s 97 Twitter followers but less than Godfrey’s 1,955 Twitter followers.

Mundy also has more Facebook followers on his Keith Mundy for US Senate (@MundyforCongress) Facebook page (1,659 Facebook followers) than Godfrey (1,328 Facebook followers) or Karpus (865 Facebook followers).]

[Tuesday thoughts: Based on how I feel as I’m typing this, Godfrey really should win this Democratic Party primary election because we know how much money he has raised based on what the FEC reports say and I don’t know that for Karpus.

Godfrey has more Twitter followers than either Karpus or Mundy on the Democratic Party side and he has more Facebook followers than Karpus.

Godfrey is also following less people on Twitter than people are following him unlike Karpus and Mundy.]

[Further Tuesday thoughts: My official prediction is that I feel Karpus really should win this Democratic Party primary election based only on why I already said I think he would win.

Godfrey seems like he is just trying to do two things at once, run a Congressional campaign and work his paid job, so he isn’t all-in with either one of those things.

He would probably be better off working a paid job full-time until he builds up enough of a money pile to where he could take more time off from work or not work at all and just focus full-time on a Congressional campaign.

I really believe Karpus is going to win the Democratic Party primary although it’s kind of hard to say that based on the fact that I don’t see that he has raised any money from the FEC reports, but I’m sure he has raised money.

Godfrey ran for Congress in 2018 and lost in the Democratic Party primary and I think he will probably lose again.

If Godfrey wins the Democratic Party primary by a lot and not a little, he apparently is the only serious Democratic Party candidate.]