Garrett Whitlock starting pitcher preview before game on May 10th at Atlanta Braves

Garrett Whitlock (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/angels-vs-red-sox/2022/05/04/663248#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663248)

Boston Red Sox pitcher Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 1.25 ERA) is slated to start at the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, May 10th.

In 21 2/3 innings pitched this regular season, Whitlock has a 1.66 run average, true run average and very true run average.

Before Nathan Eovaldi's start on Friday, Whitlock was ranked 3rd in ERA on the Red Sox (out of 18 pitchers) and fourth in run average, true run average and very true run average.

Again, before Eovaldi's Friday start, if you only count one spot or place for pitchers who tie in ERA, Whitlock is actually 2nd on the team in ERA and third in run average, true run average and very true run average.

In wins, Whitlock has a 0.00 run average, earned run average, true run average and very true run average in 7 1/3 innings pitched. So he hasn't given up a run yet in Boston's three wins when he has pitched.

In losses, he has a 1.88 ERA and a 2.51 run average, true run average and very true run average in 14 1/3 innings pitched. Whitlock has given up four runs and three earned runs in three of the four Red Sox losses when he has pitched.

This regular season, he has helped the Red Sox actually win three games and he has actually helped the Red Sox lose three games by giving up at least one run in each of those three games.

Whitlock has .815 wins (three Red Sox wins) and 1.367 losses (three Red Sox losses) for a .374 win percentage in seven games this regular season.

If Boston would have won every game he has pitched in this regular season (seven games), Whitlock would have 2.337 wins and if the Red Sox would have lost every game he gave up runs in (which they have) Whitlock would have 1.367 losses (out of three possible losses) for a .631 success rate/win percentage.

If you don't blame any Boston Red Sox pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, Whitlock would have 1.411 losses in the regular season for a .624 success rate/win percentage.

Garrett Whitlock truly has 1.411 losses this regular season (if you absolutely want to know the truth).

Technically, the Red Sox gave up just five runs to the New York Yankees on April 8th and 9.5 runs to the Los Angeles Angels on May 4th that the opposing team actually had to work for.

Why? Because the opposing baserunner started every extra inning at second base.

So on April 8th, the game went into 11 innings and that baserunner who started on second base to start the extra inning in both the tenth and eleventh innings scored in each extra inning.

On May 4th, Max Stassi, the Angels baserunner who started at second base in the 10th inning scored on Taylor Ward's two-run home run off Matt Barnes.

Whitlock hasn't pitched in extra innings yet this season, but he gets a larger percentage of blame for a Red Sox loss if the game goes into extra innings.

Out of four Red Sox losses Garrett Whitlock has pitched in, three games of those games went to extra innings. Boston lost all three of those extra inning games.

Clearly, Whitlock would have four wins and three losses if you give him a win or a loss decision for every game.

But wait, there's more!

I also took the time to look at every game Garrett Whitlock has pitched this regular season.

Whitlock has given up the following for runs this regular season:

April 8th at New York Yankees: 1 run

April 12th at Detroit Tigers: 0 runs

April 16th vs. Minnesota Twins: 0 runs

April 19th vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 0 runs

April 23rd at Tampa Bay Rays: 0 runs

April 28th at Toronto Blue Jays: 1 run (0 earned)

May 4th vs. Los Angeles Angels: 2 runs

Whitlock actually gave up two runs in a game against the Angels, the first time he has done that all regular season!

If you take each game and put it into one very long inning, I project that Whitlock could have given up the following amount of runs in each game:

Scenario #1

April 8th at New York Yankees: 2 runs (1 additional run)

April 12th at Detroit Tigers: 0 runs

April 16th vs. Minnesota Twins: 0 runs

April 19th vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 0 runs

April 23rd at Tampa Bay Rays: 0 runs

April 28th at Toronto Blue Jays: 5 runs (4 additional runs)

May 4th vs. Los Angeles Angels: 2 runs (0 additional runs)

I think Whitlock could have given up nine runs.

The additional runs are how many extra runs that could have happened compared to the actual amount of runs that Whitlock actually gave up.

If you take each very long inning (from each game) and combine all of those very long innings into one extremely giant inning for the entire regular season and you really want to see how awful Whitlock could look, I project this is how bad it really could have gotten:

Scenario #2

April 8th at New York Yankees: 2 runs (1 additional run)

April 12th at Detroit Tigers: 1 run (1 additional run)

April 16th vs. Minnesota Twins: 3 runs (3 additional runs)

April 19th vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 0 runs

April 23rd at Tampa Bay Rays: 1 runs (1 additional runs)

April 28th at Toronto Blue Jays: 7 runs (6 additional runs)

May 4th vs. Los Angeles Angels: 2 runs (0 additional runs)

I think Whitlock at most could have given up 16 runs so far this regular season.

So how do I think his next start will go?

Whitlock is either going to give up probably three runs (with his current pattern of giving up zero runs on April 23rd, one run on April 28th and two runs on May 4th) or he is going to give up zero runs.

I project Whitlock is either going to give up zero additional runs like he did on April 12th compared to April 8th when he gave up two runs (scenario one, the very long inning game), or he could give up at least one additional run like on April 12th (scenario two, the entire regular season game).

I want to compare the fact that if things would have not gone as well in his last start against the Los Angeles Angels, the exact same thing will happen in his next game/start.

In scenario two (the entire regular season game), he also gave up one additional run from April 23rd compared to April 19th when he gave up zero additional runs.

In scenario three, I project how many runs Whitlock maybe allows, runs he allows for sure and how many runs he realistically probably gives up in each game if you apply scenario two to scenario three (where you are trying to make Whitlock look as awful as possible) and each game basically just never ends:

Scenario #3

April 8th at New York Yankees: maybe 2 runs, 1 for sure, 1 realistically

April 12th at Detroit Tigers: maybe 1 run, 1 for sure, 1 run realistically

April 16th vs. Minnesota Twins: maybe 2 or 3 runs, 2 for sure, 2 runs realistically

April 19th vs. Toronto Blue Jays: maybe 1 or zero runs, 0 for sure, 0 runs realistically

April 23rd at Tampa Bay Rays: maybe 1 run, 1 for sure, 1 realistically

April 28th at Toronto Blue Jays: maybe 7 runs, 7 for sure, 5 realistically

May 4th vs. Los Angeles Angels: 2 runs, 2 for sure, 2 realistically

So in total, I have maybe 16 runs for certain, 14 runs for sure and 12 runs realistically. One run is going to be taken away on the maybe runs for April 16th or April 19th.

Whitlock's run average or earned run average is more likely 3.74 (9 runs allowed), 4.98 (12 runs allowed), 5.82 (14 runs allowed) or 6.65 (16 runs allowed) this regular season.

Nine and twelve runs allowed is realistic but once you get to 14 or 16 runs allowed, then it become a lot more unrealistic that is his run average or earned run average.

If Whitlock gives up four runs or more against the Braves, I will not be surprised. I think an explosion of runs against Whitlock could happen on Tuesday night.

I think he is due to give up a lot of runs in a game soon.

Whatever, opinions I said about Garrett Whitlock that were above and before scenarios one, two and three I wrote about on Saturday (two days ago).

It seems very likely that Whitlock is going to at least give up a run on Tuesday night. Whitlock is probably going to give up two runs on Tuesday night (because if I don't say that, that is probably what is going to actually happen).

With the way the Red Sox have been playing, currently on a five-game losing streak, the cancer of Boston continuing to lose has to be getting to Whitlock at some point.

The Red Sox are bound to win a game soon, so I expect him to pitch good but not great.

Whether Whitlock gives up any runs at all or not on Tuesday night, I expect him to have traffic on the bases throughout much of Tuesday night's game.

In his last two starts, Whitlock has thrown a lower percentage of strikes than his first start of the regular season.

He is throwing more pitches and going deeper into games (and pitching more innings) and his last start he probably should have got removed from the game after he allowed the first batter of the game for the Angels (Jared Walsh) to double and get on-base.

That mistake is on the manager Alex Cora. No question about it, with how things ultimately unfolded in that game and since that game.

Whitlock threw 69 pitches after giving up that hit. He ended up throwing 78 pitches and giving up a two-run homer to Max Stassi on the 73rd pitch.

The 26th ball of the game by Whitlock was thrown on the third pitch during Walsh's at-bat in which he doubled. That should have been the warning sign to pull Whitlock.

Not to mention that third ball made it a 3-0 count on Walsh.

Whitlock had never thrown more than five balls more than he previously had thrown in any previous game this regular season. He threw 20 balls at Toronto on April 28th and 15 balls on at Tampa Bay on April 23rd.

In this three starts, he has thrown .688 percentage of pitches thrown for strikes in start one, .672 percent in start two and .641 percent on Wednesday night (start three).

Comparing start one to two, he was 15 percentage points lower (for rounding purposes, not 16) than start one.

From start two to three, he was 31 percentage point lower.

In doing that, he also had back-to-back games with negative percentage points for the first time this regular season and he also doubled the difference of the amount of percentage points from his previous start.

If you are manager Alex Cora (or someone who talks to him and knows what he thinks) I think you have to consider pulling Whitlock from the game once he throws somewhere between the 15th ball and the 26th ball on Tuesday night.

Maybe you let him throw 30 balls or 32 balls (but no more than 33 balls). Whitlock threw 28 balls on Wednesday, May 4th vs. the Los Angeles Angels.

If Whitlock has a very bad start on Tuesday I am going to predict it is going to be 1 1/3 innings pitched or 2 innings pitched.

He would complete 23 innings pitched or 23 2/3 innings pitched in the regular season if he lasts long enough in the game on Tuesday to pitch that long.

If his start is better than that, it is going to be 4 1/3 innings pitched or 5 innings pitched.

Again, he would pitch 26 innings or 26 2/3 innings pitched for the entire regular season.

I also should predict he may pitch 1 2/3 innings or 4 2/3 innings if it isn't what I just mentioned within the last few sentences.

Whitlock is going back home to Georgia so I think he wants to pitch well for all of his fans that know him personally.

If Whitlock cannot pitch, Boston will have one of their relievers start the game or the Red Sox are going to call up a player from the minor leagues to start.

Rich Hill could start in place of Whitlock if he gets off the COVID-19 injured list in time.

If Whitlock and Hill cannot go on Tuesday night, the Red Sox are going to be forced to reset their rotation (unless Nathan Eovaldi wants his next start to be earlier than normal).

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NOTE: Very true run average and run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

FINAL NOTE: All statistics in the story above are from after the May 5th, 2022 game and before the May 6th, 2022 game. This story was posted on Monday, May 9th, 2022.

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All facts below (from here on out) are from after the May 8th, 2022 game and before the May 10th, 2022 game.

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

NEW: The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

Matt Barnes .148 wins and 2.133 losses (.065 win pct.)

Ryan Brasier .259 wins and 1.508 losses (.147 win pct.)

Kutter Crawford .259 wins and .993 losses (.207 win pct.)

Tyler Danish .111 wins and .542 losses (.170 win pct.)

Austin Davis .296 wins and .239 losses (.554 win pct.)

Jake Diekman .741 wins and .925 losses (.445 win pct.)

Nathan Eovaldi 1.074 wins and 1.583 losses (.404 win pct.)

Rich Hill .926 wins and .500 losses (.649 win pct.)

Tanner Houck 1.333 wins and 2.448 losses (.353 win pct.)

Nick Pivetta 0.000 wins and 2.944 losses (.000 win pct.)

Kevin Plawecki .000 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.)

Hansel Robles .667 wins and 1.383 losses (.325 win pct.)

Hirokazu Sawamura .222 wins and 1.106 losses (.167 win pct.)

John Schreiber .111 wins and 0.000 losses (1.000 win pct.)

Matt Strahm .630 wins and 0.167 losses (.791 win pct.)

Phillips Valdez 0.000 wins and .828 losses (.000 win pct.)

Michael Wacha 2.407 wins and .333 losses (.878 win pct.)

Garrett Whitlock .815 wins and 1.367 losses (.374 win pct.)

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Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

NEW: The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

VERY FINAL NOTE: To not confuse people, pitchers do get blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base. When I have presented this detailed information (as you see below) this entire regular season (so far), I have always blamed the pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base.

Matt Barnes 1.162 wins and 2.133 losses (.353 win pct.) 10 1/3 innings pitched

Ryan Brasier 1.118 wins and 2.675 losses (.295 win pct.) 10 innings pitched

Kutter Crawford .940 wins and 1.314 losses (.417 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Tyler Danish .631 wins and 0.542 losses (.538 win pct.) 5 2/3 innings pitched

Austin Davis 1.471 wins and .525 losses (.737 win pct.) 13 1/3 innings pitched

Jake Diekman 1.071 wins and 1.032 losses (.509 win pct.) 9 2/3 innings pitched

Nathan Eovaldi 3.782 wins and 2.869 losses (.569 win pct.) 33 2/3 innings pitched

Rich Hill 2.500 wins and 1.500 losses (.625 win pct.) 22 innings pitched

Tanner Houck 2.653 wins and 3.031 losses (.467 win pct.) 23 2/3 innings pitched

Nick Pivetta 2.999 wins and 2.944 losses (.505 win pct.) 26 2/3 innings pitched

Kevin Plawecki .125 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.) 1 inning pitched

Hansel Robles 1.342 wins and 2.383 losses (.360 win pct.) 12 1/3 innings pitched

Hirokazu Sawamura 1.123 wins and 1.106 losses (.504 win pct.) 10 innings pitched

John Schreiber .493 wins and 0 .000 losses (1.000 win pct.) 4 1/3 innings pitched

Matt Strahm 1.100 wins and 0.750 losses (.595 win pct.) 10 innings pitched

Phillips Valdez 1.204 wins and 0.828 losses (.593 win pct.) 10 1/3 innings pitched

Michael Wacha 2.949 wins and 2.000 losses (.596 win pct.) 26 innings pitched

Garrett Whitlock 2.337 wins and 1.367 losses (.631 win pct.) 21 2/3 innings pitched

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Wins, Losses, Holds, Blown Saves and Saves that everybody understands

Matt Barnes 0-3 Blown Saves 1 Saves 1

Ryan Brasier Holds 3, Blown Saves 2

Kutter Crawford 1-1