Indiana 2026 Election Predictions

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By: Evan Troxel

These are my predictions to win the primary election and the general election (for right now, subject to change before like September 25th, 2026,) for the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate Elections (and other elections) for the U.S. state of Indiana in 2026.

I also list people who I think support Islam or who I think or terrorists (or who should be put on a terrorist watch list at the very least).

Indiana currently has 2 Democrats and 7 Republicans, in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Indiana has two Republican Party U.S. Senators. Todd Young is up for re-election in 2028 and Jim Banks is up for re-election in 2030.

(Predicted on Friday, May 1st, 2026, at 5:01 p.m. Eastern Time)

U.S. House Elections

1st Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win (term starts on January 3rd, 2027):

Democrats:

Frank Mrvan (Democrat) Correct

2nd place: LaVetta Sparks-Wade (Democrat) Correct

2-0 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana

Republicans:

Barb Regnitz (Republican) Correct

2nd place: Jim Schenke (Republican) Correct

3rd place: Ben Ruiz (Republican) Correct

3-0 won-lost record for Republicans

General election prediction to win: Barb Regnitz (Republican)

2nd place: (Frank Mrvan will probably win though. I reserve the right to change my predictions, let's just say the day of an election.)

2nd Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win:

Democrats:

Winner: Jamee Decio (Democrat) Correct

2nd place: Shaun Maeyens (Democrat) Correct

4-0 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana

Republicans:

Winner: Rudy Yakym (Republican) Correct

4-0 won-lost record for Republicans

Libertarian:

Winner: William Henry

General election prediction to win:

Rudy Yakym (Republican)

2nd place: Jamee Decio (Democrat)

3rd place: Eric Beebe (Independent)

4th place: William Henry (Libertarian)

3rd Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win:

Democrats:

Kelly Thompson (Democrat) Correct

5-0 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana

Republicans:

Winner: Martin Stutzman (Republican) Correct

2nd place: Jon Kenworthy (Republican) Correct

6-0 won-lost record for Republicans

Independents:

Phillip D. Beachy (Libertarian)

General election prediction to win:

Martin Stutzman (Republican)

2nd place: Kelly Thompson (Democrat)

3rd place: Phillip D. Beachy (Libertarian)

4th Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win:

Democrats:

Drew Cox (Democrat) Correct

2nd place: Joe Mackey (Democrat) Correct

3rd place: Paul McPherson (Democrat) Correct

4th place: Thomas D. Hall Jr. (Democrat) Wrong

5th place: John Whetstone (Democrat) Wrong

6th place: Jayden McCash (Democrat) Wrong

7th place: Darin Patrick Griesey (Democrat) Wrong

8th place: Roger Day (Democrat) Correct

9th place: Robert Lovely (Democrat)

9-4 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana. Robert Lovey wasn't a candidate according to NBC News.

Republicans:

Winner: Jim Baird (Republican) Correct

2nd place: Craig Haggard (Republican) Correct

3rd place: John Piper (Republican) Correct

9-0 won-lost record for Republicans

Independent:

David Bokash (Independent)

General election predictions to win:

Jim Baird (Republican)

2nd place: Drew Cox (Democrat)

3rd place: David Bokash (Independent)

5th Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win:

Democrats

Dylan McKenna (Democrat) Wrong

2nd place: Steven Avit (Democrat) Wrong

3rd place: J.D. Ford (Democrat) Wrong

4th place: Tara Nelson (Democrat) Correct

5th place: Jackson Franklin (Democrat) Wrong

6th place: Phil Goss (Democrat) Correct

7th place: Deborah A. Pickett (Democrat) Wrong

11-9 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana.

Republicans

Victoria Spartz (Republican) Correct

2nd place: Scott King (Republican) Correct

11-0 won-lost record for Republicans

General election predictions to win:

Victoria Spartz (Republican)

2nd place: Dylan McKenna (Democrat)

6th Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win:

William Kory Amyx (Democrat) Wrong

2nd place: Nick Baker (Democrat) Wrong

3rd place: David Boyd (Democrat) Wrong

4th place: Cynthia Wirth (Democrat) Wrong

5th place: Tyler Vandenberg (Democrat)

6th place: Martha Guerrero (Democrat)

7th place: Michael Stansfield (Republican)

The last three people weren't on the ballot according to NBC News.

11-13 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana.

Republicans:

Jefferson Shreve (Republican) Correct

Sarah Janisse Brown (Republican) Correct

13-0 won-lost record for Republicans

General election predictions to win:

Jefferson Shreve (Republican)

2nd place: William Kory Amyx (Democrat)

7th Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win:

Democrats:

Andre Carson (Democrat) Correct

2nd place: Destiny Scott Wells (Democrat) Correct

3rd place: George Hornedo (Democrat) Correct

4th place: Denise Paul Hatch (Democrat) Correct

15-13 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana.

Republicans:

Patrick McAuley (Republican) Correct

2nd place: Felipe Rios (Republican) Correct

15-0 won-lost record for Republicans

Libertarian:

James Sceniak (Libertarian)

General election predictions to win:

Andre Carson (Democrat)

2nd place: Patrick McAuley (Republican)

3rd place: James Sceniak (Libertarian)

8th Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win:

Democrats:

Mary Allen (Democrat) Correct

2nd place: Mario Foradori (Democrat) Wrong

3rd place: Christopher Rector (Democrat) Correct

4th place: Tabitha Zeigler (Democrat) Wrong

17-15 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana.

Republicans:

Mark Messmer (Republican) Correct

16-0 won-lost record for Republicans

General election predictions to win:

Mark Messmer (Republican)

2nd place: Mary Allen (Democrat)

3rd place: James Burke (Independent)

9th Congressional District:

Primary election predictions to win:

Democrats:

Brad Meyer (Democrat) Correct

2nd place: Tim Peck (Democrat) Correct

3rd place: Jim Graham (Democrat) Correct

4th place: Keil Roark (Democrat) Correct

21-15 won-lost record for Democrats in Indiana.

(I really don't expect the Democratic primary to go this way, but these are what my eyes are telling me, just by looking at their profile pictures on Ballotpedia.org! Jim Graham or Tim Peck SHOULD win based off of money data!)

Republicans:

Erin Houchin (Republican) Correctd

17-0 won-lost record for Republicans

My predictions (for final placings) for the primary elections resulted in 38 wins and 15 losses for the Democrat and Republican parties combined!

Libertarian:

Tonya Hudson (Libertarian)

Independent:

Floyd Taylor (Independent)

General election predictions to win:

Erin Houchin (Republican)

2nd place: Jim Graham (Democrat)

3rd place: Tonya Hudson (Libertarian)

4th place: Floyd Taylor (Independent)

U.S. Senate election predictions:

There are no U.S. Senate elections for the state of Indiana for the 2026 election cycle. The next scheduled U.S. Senate election cycle for Indiana will be in the year 2028.

Those are all of my predictions to win for right now! Be sure to come back to this page for my updated and final predictions in Indiana before the General Election.

These predictions are meant to give my personal opinion about who will win each election.

Be sure to follow me on my various social media which you can find on this page for right now. Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Evan_Troxel. Also, be sure to definitely follow me on Gab @Evan_Troxel  and on Telegram as well at t.me/Evan_Troxel in case I ever get censored and banned from X and Facebook!

I reserve the right to change my predictions before the first day of the General Election. I also can change my predictions AFTER the start of the first day of the General Election ONLY if I decide BEFORE the General Election that I want to change my predictions and I just do not have access to the Internet before the General Election.

LEGAL NOTICE: I DO NOT endorse and I do not encourage people to gamble or bet your own money and other people's money at all! These predictions are not meant to be taken as extremely serious advice for betting and gambling purposes anytime at all in the near future! If you have a gambling problem, please seek help from someone you trust! If you don't trust anyone, you probably need to start trusting certain people in your life more!