My Predictions Men's Division i College Basketball Tournament 2022
2022 NCAA Division I Men's College Basketball Final Four Logo
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This story will show where each team should have been seeded in the NCAA Men’s Division I College Basketball National Championship Tournament. I also make my predictions for who will win each game of the NCAA Tournament. I also show which teams are better based on stats after Saturday, March 12th games (the day before the Selection Show) and which of those teams could win each game in the NCAA Tournament. Sure, it won't be a reflection of what is likely to happen in the NCAA Tournament, but for a handful of games it could be. Finally, I write comments on what can be done to make the First Four games of the NCAA Tournament better so that the winners of the First Four games actually have a chance to win in both the First and Second Rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
For each team I write down what seed they SHOULD HAVE been assuming these were the only 68 teams who could have been in the NCAA Tournament, because you already know what seeds they were ranked by the NCAA Tournament Committee.
I am basing all of this information after Saturday, the 12th of March 2022’s games and before Sunday, March 13th’s games. In particular, the only two rankings I really care about are win percentage and scoring margin and I combined the two rankings to get one number. To break those tiebreakers, whatever team won more head-to-head matchups (based on wins, losses, win percentage, average points scored per game, average opponent points scored per game and scoring margin) was ranked or seeded higher. If there was no clear winner and both teams were still tied after those six head-to-head matchups, I consulted whatever the NCAA's rankings are supposed to mean from the aforementioned win percentage and scoring margin on the stats.ncaa.org website (which the decimal points were carried further and further and therefore I can only assume they were more specific so two teams were less likely to be tied about any one statistic) after games on March 12th. These are what the NCAA rankings were for win percentage and scoring margin after March 13th's games, which would be what the NCAA would consult for any final information on the last day that games were played before the NCAA Tournament field was set.
So based on the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s rankings how incorrect or correct for each team were they?
Correct Seeds: Texas Southern (16 seed, correct on play-in game too, should be favorite to lose in play-in game, ranked 65th in tournament field), Virginia Tech (11 seed), Boise State (8 seed), Colorado State (6 seed), Purdue (3 seed), Duke (2 seed), Auburn (2 seed),Arizona (1 seed), Gonzaga (1 seed)
One Seed too low (underrated): Wright State (15 seed), Delaware (14 seed), Saint Peter’s (14 seed),
Two Seeds too low: Cal State Fullerton (13 seed)
Three Seeds too low: Georgia State (13 seed), Wyoming (9 seed), San Francisco (7 seed)
Four Seeds too low: Bryant (12 seed, should not be in play-in game), A&M-Corpus Christi (12 seed), Jacksonville State (11 seed), Colgate (10 seed), Houston (1 seed)
Five Seeds too low: Akron (8 seed), New Mexico State (7 seed), Loyola-Chicago (5 seed),
Six Seeds too low: Murray State (1 seed)
Seven Seeds too low: Montana State (7 seed), Davidson (3 seed)
Eight Seeds too low: Chattanooga (5 seed)
Nine Seeds too low: UAB (3 seed)
Ten Seeds too low: Longwood (4 seed)
Eleven Seeds too low: Vermont (2 seed), South Dakota St. (2 seed)
Twelve Seeds too low: Norfolk State (4 seed)
Thirteen Seeds too low: 19
Fourteen Seeds too low: 18
Fifteen Seeds too low: 17
Sixteen Seeds too low:
One Seed too high (overrated): Memphis (10 seed), San Diego State (9 seed), Iowa (6 seed),UCLA (5 seed)
Two Seeds too high: Yale (16 seed, should be favorite to win in play-in game), Indiana (14 seed, should not be in play-in game), Notre Dame (13 seed, should not be in play-in game), Southern California (9 seed), Saint Mary’s (CA) (7 seed), Tennessee (5 seed), Kentucky (4 seed), Baylor (3 seed)
Three Seeds too high: Richmond (15 seed), Miami (FL) (13 seed), North Carolina (11 seed), UConn (8 seed), Texas Tech (6 seed), Kansas (4 seed)
Four Seeds too high: Seton Hall (12 seed), LSU (10 seed), Arkansas (8 seed), Villanova (6 seed)
Five Seeds too high: Michigan (16 seed, should be favorite to lose in play-in game, ranked 68th in tournament field), Rutgers (16 seed, but correct that they would be one of eight teams to be in the play-in game, ranked 67th in tournament field), Iowa State (16 seed, should be favorite to win in play-in game), Texas (11 seed), Illinois (9 seed)
Six Seeds too high: Creighton (15 seed), Providence (10 seed)
Seven Seeds too high: Marquette (16 seed, should be favorite to win in play-in game), TCU (16 seed, should be favorite to win in play-in game), Ohio State (14 seed),
Eight seeds too high: Michigan State (15 seed)
Nine seeds too high:
Ten seeds too high: Alabama (16 seed, should be favorite to lose in play-in game, ranked 66th in tournament field), Wisconsin (12 seed)
Eleven seeds too high:
Twelve seeds too high:
Thirteen seeds too high:
Fourteen seeds too high:
Fifteen seeds too high:
Sixteen seeds too high:
What can be said about the NCAA Selection Committee’s decisions? Well, there were only 9 correct seedings of the 68 teams in the Tournament. There were 24 teams that were not ranked high enough and 35 teams that were ranked too high (overrated).
NCAA Tournament Bracket (higher ranked teams who should win and not necessarily who I think will actually win):
West Region (San Francisco, California) (rank 1 to 16 within region, Pre-Tournament National Rank exclusively within NCAA Tournament):
# 8 (8, 29) Boise State vs. #9 (10, 39) Memphis: 8 Boise State
# 5 (8, 30) UConn vs. #12 (7, 25) New Mexico State: Upset Alert: New Mexico State
#6 (16, 66) Alabama vs. #11 (16, 67) Rutgers/(13, 49) Notre Dame winner: Notre Dame; Upset Alert: Notre Dame defeats Alabama
Gonzaga vs. Boise State: Gonzaga
New Mexico State vs. Vermont: Vermont
Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech: Texas Tech
Davidson vs. Duke: Duke
Gonzaga vs. Vermont: Gonzaga
Texas Tech vs. Duke: Duke
Gonzaga vs. Duke: Gonzaga
East Region (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
#5 (7, 26) Saint Mary’s vs. #12 (9, 34) Wyoming/(14, 55) Indiana winner: Wyoming; Saint Mary’s defeats Wyoming
Baylor vs. North Carolina: Baylor
Saint Mary’s vs. UCLA: UCLA
Texas vs. Purdue: Purdue
Murray State vs. Kentucky: Upset Alert: Murray State
Baylor vs. UCLA: Baylor
Purdue vs. Murray State: Upset Alert: Murray State
Baylor vs. Murray State: Upset Alert Murray State
South Region (San Antonio, Texas)
#1 (1, 3) Arizona vs. #16 (15, 59) Wright State/(12, 47) Bryant winner: Bryant; Arizona defeats Bryant
#3 (5, 20) Tennessee vs. 14 (4, 15) Longwood: Upset Alert: Longwood
Arizona vs. Seton Hall: Arizona
Houston vs. Chattanooga: Houston
Colorado State vs. Longwood: Upset Alert: Longwood
Loyola-Chicago vs. Villanova: Upset Alert: Loyola-Chicago
Arizona vs. Houston: Arizona
Longwood vs. Loyola-Chicago: Upset Alert: Longwood
Arizona vs. Longwood: Arizona
Midwest Region (Chicago, Illinois)
#1 (4, 14) Kansas vs. #16 (16, 65) Texas Southern/(12, 45) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi; Kansas defeats Texas Southern
Kansas vs. San Diego State: Kansas
Iowa vs. South Dakota State: Upset Alert: South Dakota State
LSU vs. Colgate: LSU (however Colgate might pull off an upset)
Southern California (USC) vs. Auburn: Auburn
Kansas vs. South Dakota State: Upset Alert: South Dakota State
LSU vs. Auburn: Auburn
South Dakota State vs. Auburn: Upset Alert: South Dakota State
Final Four
Gonzaga vs. Murray State: Upset Alert: Murray State
Arizona vs. South Dakota State: Arizona
National Championship
Murray State vs. Arizona: Upset Alert: Murray State
NCAA Tournament Bracket (Teams who I actually think will win each NCAA Tournament game)
West (San Francisco, California) Region (rank 1 to 16 within region, Pre-Tournament National Rank exclusively within NCAA Tournament):
# 8 (8, 29) Boise State vs. #9 (10, 39) Memphis: Upset Alert: 9 Memphis
# 5 (8, 30) UConn vs. #12 (7, 25) New Mexico State: 5 UConn
#6 (16, 66) Alabama vs. #11 (16, 67) Rutgers/(13, 49) Notre Dame winner: Notre Dame; Upset Alert: Notre Dame defeats Alabama
Gonzaga vs. Memphis: Gonzaga
UConn vs. Arkansas: Upset Alert: UConn
Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech: Texas Tech
Michigan State vs. Duke: Duke
Gonzaga vs. UConn: Gonzaga
Texas Tech vs. Duke: Duke
Gonzaga vs. Duke: Duke (Second Choice to win Region: Gonzaga)
All in all, I think everyone understands that I am choosing Duke to win the West Region because it gives Coach K one more opportunity to take his team all the way to the Promised Land, a National Championship. I really have a hard time believing Duke is actually going to win the West Region though which is why I chose Gonzaga as a second choice to win the West Region who I think is definitely in the actual National Champions conversation for certain this season.
East Region (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
#5 (7, 26) Saint Mary’s vs. #12 (9, 34) Wyoming/(14, 55) Indiana winner: Wyoming; Upset Alert: Indiana defeats Saint Mary’s
Baylor vs. North Carolina: Baylor
Indiana vs. UCLA: UCLA
Texas vs. Purdue: Purdue
Murray State vs. Kentucky: Kentucky
Baylor vs. UCLA: Upset Alert: UCLA
Purdue vs. Kentucky: Kentucky
UCLA vs. Kentucky: Upset Alert: UCLA (Second choice to win Region: Baylor; Third choice to win Region: Kentucky)
South Region (San Antonio, Texas)
#1 (1, 3) Arizona vs. #16 (15, 59) Wright State/(12, 47) Bryant winner: Bryant; Arizona defeats Wright State
#3 (5, 20) Tennessee vs. 14 (4, 15) Longwood: Tennessee
Arizona vs. Seton Hall: Arizona
Houston vs. Illinois: Upset Alert: Houston
Michigan vs. Tennessee: Upset Alert: Michigan
Loyola-Chicago vs. Villanova: Villanova
Arizona vs. Houston: Arizona
Michigan vs. Villanova: Villanova
Arizona vs. Villanova: Upset Alert: Villanova (Second choice to win Region: Arizona)
Midwest Region (Chicago, Illinois)
#1 (4, 14) Kansas vs. #16 (16, 65) Texas Southern/(12, 45) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi winner: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi; Kansas defeats Texas Southern
Kansas vs. San Diego State: Kansas
Iowa vs. Providence: Upset Alert: Iowa
LSU vs. Wisconsin: Wisconsin
Southern California (USC) vs. Auburn: Auburn
Kansas vs. Iowa: Kansas
Wisconsin vs. Auburn: Auburn
Kansas vs. Auburn: Kansas
Final Four
Duke vs. UCLA: Duke (alternative predictions: Gonzaga vs. Baylor: Gonzaga or Gonzaga vs. Kentucky: Kentucky)
Villanova vs. Kansas: Villanova (alternative prediction: Arizona vs. Kansas: Arizona)
National Championship
Duke vs. Villanova: Duke (alternative predictions: Gonzaga vs. Arizona: Gonzaga or Kentucky vs. Kansas: Kentucky)
Generally speaking, I think Gonzaga is probably going to win the National Championship if Duke doesn’t win it.
I have a feeling Kentucky might win the National Championship if Arizona, Duke or Gonzaga don’t.
If Duke, Gonzaga or Kentucky do not win the National Championship, I think it will be Arizona but I’m not really sure who they would play in the National Semifinal or National Championship Game. My best guess on who Arizona would play in the National Semifinal and/or the National Championship Game are my predictions on the teams who made it to the Final Four.
Notes on First Four games:
The only teams who could have actually benefited from those games in Dayton, Ohio, were Bryant, Rutgers and Wright State (which was virtually a home game for them).
Indiana and Notre Dame also had to travel east a little bit, but it also was pretty close to a virtual home game for both of those teams as well, just one U.S. state to the east.
The First Four games need to be moved out of Dayton, Ohio, and to the city you are going to play your (round of 64) games in two days later if you win one of the First Four games.
It is absolutely ridiculous that Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Texas Southern had to go to Dayton when the NCAA could have made a lot more money by just playing the games in Texas where both teams were going to be going back to anyway (regardless of who won the game).
It is so obvious the NCAA wanted the two Texas teams I just mentioned and Wyoming to have to travel a long ways to Dayton so there was no possible way they could physically win the First Four games, or even the First or Second rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
It is so obvious the NCAA got exactly what they wanted from the four teams who won the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday to win those games.
Those First Four games were all fixed, all of them, except for maybe the Texas Southern vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi games, to let Texas A&M know (not Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) or perhaps the entire Texas A&M university system (which I guess would include Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) that we don’t like you as sort of an insult to injury for whatever reason.
Perhaps that reason is because maybe Texas A&M doesn’t believe in COVID-19 vaccine mandates or even mask mandates (I really don’t know what Texas A&M university system’s stance on COVID-19 vaccine mandates or mask mandates are at all).
I’m pretty sure after what I just told you, all First Four games were definitely fixed, all of them.
Out of the four teams who won their first four games, Notre Dame will definitely beat Alabama, Indiana might defeat Saint Mary’s and Arizona will probably destroy Wright State while Kansas will win against Texas Southern.
In the second round, out of the First Four winners, I can only see Notre Dame likely defeating Texas Tech (or Montana State) and advancing to the third round.
