Nathan Eovaldi starting pitcher final preview before May 6th game vs. Chicago White Sox

Nathan Eovaldi (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-orioles/2022/04/30/663364#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663364)

Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 2.51 ERA) is the starting pitcher today/tonight (Friday) for the Boston Red Sox.

He is still looking for his first win of the regular season in which he at least pitches 5 1/3 innings pitched or more.

The Boston offense actually needs to show up for Eovaldi (and score a lot of runs) and I expect the Red Sox to win tonight's game (regardless of how many runs they actually score).

I am so confident that the Red Sox are going to win tonight's game that I am going to guarantee it!

So how do I think Eovaldi will pitch tonight? Well, let's take a look at his previous five starts.

He gave up three runs to the New York Yankees on April 8th, two runs to the Detroit Tiger on April 13th and one run to the Toronto Blue Jays on April 19th.

In these three starts, if you take each game and put it into one giant inning, I project that Eovaldi could have given up at least five runs in each game (maybe more). So that is two, three and four additional runs he could have possibly given up.

On April 25th at the Toronto Blue Jays, I project he could have given up three runs (when he actually gave up two runs) so that is one additional run he could have given up.

On April 30th at the Baltimore Orioles, he gave up zero runs when I think he could have given up at least two runs.

Eovaldi has pitched in a night game in his last three starts and he has improved in each game in terms of possible runs that he could have given up.

So I expect him to do well and maybe give up one or two runs.

Maybe I should expect him to have an awful game tonight. I don't expect him to not give up any runs tonight. I do expect him to give up at least one run.

But I do expect him to have a good or even a great game tonight with how Saturday night's game ended last week in which the Red Sox should have easily won that game if they would have put more than one or two or three runs on the scoreboard.

He has a 2.79 ERA in wins and a 2.37 ERA in losses this regular season.

Eovaldi is ranked 7th (out of 18 Boston Red Sox pitchers in ERA right now. He is ranked sixth right now if there is only one spot taken up for ties between two or more pitchers.

His run average, true run average and very true run average is the same right now as his earned run average (ERA).

He is ranked 6th in run average, true run average and very true run average right now on the Red Sox. He is ranked 5th ranked now in those categories for ties.

Eovaldi's last two starts have been 7 innings pitched and have been all for nothing because the Red Sox did not win either game.

This regular season, Eovaldi has actually helped the Boston Red Sox win 1.074 games (two Red Sox wins) and he has actually helped them lose .833 games (two Red Sox losses) for a .563 win percentage.

If Boston had won every game he pitched in (5 games), he would have 3.227 wins and if the Red Sox had lost every game he gave up runs in, Eovaldi would have 2.119 losses (out of four possible losses) for a .604 success rate/win percentage.

Eovaldi would have 2.219 possible losses this regular season (out of four possible losses) for a .593 success rate/win percentage if you don't blame any Red Sox pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start the inning at second base in any extra inning.

In three Red Sox games that Eovaldi has pitched in, the Red Sox have lost two of those games in extra innings. Eovaldi has not pitched in extra innings so far this regular season.

Eovaldi has 9 2/3 innings pitched in wins and 19 innings pitched in losses for a total of 28 2/3 innings pitched.

He has given up 3 runs in Red Sox wins and 5 runs in Boston losses.

This start I expect will be between 76 and 95 pitches for Eovaldi as I expect he may have some trouble against Chicago White Sox batters and therefore he probably won't be able to throw more pitches than that. Although I won't be surprised if he throws 96 to 110 pitches.

To get Eovaldi a win tonight (which he probably has already earned at this point), Red Sox manager Alex Cora needs to let Eovaldi pitch as long as possible tonight and catcher Kevin Plawecki needs to call a great game so Eovaldi is not giving up run(s) and getting pulled from the game too early.

The Chicago White Sox come to Fenway Park in Boston winning three straight games and have 11 wins and 13 losses.

Boston has 10 wins and 16 losses and have lost two straight games.

The White Sox are 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are just 3-7.

Boston has won four games at home and Chicago has won four games on the road.

Both teams also have a -18 run differential which I feel is important to mention right now.

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NOTE: Very true run average and run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

FINAL NOTE: All statistics in this story are from after the May 5th, 2022, game and before the May 6th, 2022 game. This story was posted on Friday, May 6th, 2022.

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Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

NEW: The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

Matt Barnes .148 wins and 1.467 losses (.092 win pct.)

Ryan Brasier .259 wins and 1.258 losses (.171 win pct.)

Kutter Crawford .259 wins and .993 losses (.207 win pct.)

Tyler Danish .111 wins and .542 losses (.170 win pct.)

Austin Davis .296 wins and .239 losses (.554 win pct.)

Jake Diekman .741 wins and .925 losses (.445 win pct.)

Nathan Eovaldi 1.074 wins and .833 losses (.563 win pct.)

Rich Hill .926 wins and .500 losses (.649 win pct.)

Tanner Houck 1.333 wins and 1.448 losses (.479 win pct.)

Nick Pivetta 0.000 wins and 2.944 losses (.000 win pct.)

Kevin Plawecki .000 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.)

Hansel Robles .667 wins and 1.050 losses (.388 win pct.)

Hirokazu Sawamura .222 wins and 1.106 losses (.167 win pct.)

John Schreiber .111 wins and 0 losses (1.000 win pct.)

Matt Strahm .630 wins and 0.167 losses (.791 win pct.)

Phillips Valdez 0 wins and .828 losses (.000 win pct.)

Michael Wacha 2.407 wins and .333 losses (.878 win pct.)

Garrett Whitlock .815 wins and 1.367 losses (.374 win pct.)

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Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

NEW: The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

Matt Barnes .950 wins and 1.467 losses (.393 win pct.) 8 1/3 innings pitched

Ryan Brasier .907 wins and 2.425 losses (.272 win pct.) 8 innings pitched

Kutter Crawford .940 wins and 1.314 losses (.417 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Tyler Danish .520 wins and 0.542 losses (.490 win pct.) 4 2/3 innings pitched

Austin Davis 1.286 wins and .525 losses (.710 win pct.) 11 2/3 innings pitched

Jake Diekman .960 wins and 1.032 losses (.482 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Nathan Eovaldi 3.227 wins and 2.119 losses (.604 win pct.) 28 2/3 innings pitched

Rich Hill 2.500 wins and 1.500 losses (.625 win pct.) 22 innings pitched

Tanner Houck 2.356 wins and 2.031 losses (.537 win pct.) 21 innings pitched

Nick Pivetta 2.399 wins and 2.944 losses (.449 win pct.) 20 2/3 innings pitched

Kevin Plawecki .125 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.) 1 inning pitched

Hansel Robles 1.131 wins and 2.050 losses (.355 win pct.) 10 1/3 innings pitched

Hirokazu Sawamura .975 wins and 1.106 losses (.469 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

John Schreiber .278 wins and 0 losses (1.000 win pct.) 2 1/3 innings pitched

Matt Strahm .956 wins and 0.750 losses (.560 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Phillips Valdez 1.204 wins and 0.828 losses (.593 win pct.) 10 1/3 innings pitched

Michael Wacha 2.949 wins and 2.000 losses (.596 win pct.) 26 innings pitched

Garrett Whitlock 2.337 wins and 1.367 losses (.631 win pct.) 21 2/3 innings pitched

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Wins, Losses, Holds, Blown Saves and Saves that everybody understands

Matt Barnes 0-2 Blown Saves 1 Saves 1

Ryan Brasier Hold 2, Blown Saves 2

Kutter Crawford 1-1