North Dakota State Bison at Montana Grizzlies Preview FCS Division I-AA College Football Semifinals

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By: Evan Troxel

Before, I start, I should say, I "predicted" UAlbany to defeat South Dakota State in FCS (Division I-AA) college football on Friday, December 15th, 2023, and that didn't happen.

South Dakota State won 59-0 I believe.

I thought UAlbany had a good chance to win as they won their game against Villanova by more points in the regular season than South Dakota State did in their playoff game against Villanova last week!

Albany played their worst game (in terms of the scoreboard, scoring) last week before yesterday's game, since basically the end of the first half of their season.

Apparently, I was totally wrong. I should have picked South Dakota State to win. What a stupid decision.

Albany played worse (in terms of scoring, the scoreboard) two out of five times (before last night's games) after close games (single digit point differential margins) this season. The two times they played worse was the second game after they won by exactly 21 points both times.

I even knew that South Dakota State likely was going to play really well against UAlbany based on how they fared all season long after a close win.

South Dakota destroyed their opponents by at least 34 points the first game after the two previous single digit point differential games earlier this season. South Dakota had their worst performance last week (winning by 11 last week) for a game that they won by double digits this season.

South Dakota State knew they had to show up on Friday night and they did.

South Dakota State bascially has looked like an every-other-week team for the most part this season while continuing to win, playing well one week and then playing not as well the next week.

South Dakota State could not play well in the National Championship Game. However, they have a few more weeks to prepare than a normal game preparation, so they should be mostly ready to go. The question will be whether they can maintain they high-level of intensity in practice.

So South Dakota State is still undefeated and they will be in the FCS National Championship Game on January 7th, 2024, against either North Dakota State or Montana.

South Dakota State also easily covered the spread (-17.5) against UAlbany and hit the over (48.5) in the over/under.

The last time I checked on ESPN.com Montana was favored by 1.5 points to win and right now (10:27 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday), Montana is favored by 2.0 points to win. The over/under is 50.5 right now.

I have no idea why Montana is favored in this game. Sure, they have the better won-lost record, but I looked at stuff yesterday, and they have scored fewer points than North Dakota State on average this season (minus 7.192) and have a worse point differential (minus 3.896) than North Dakota State on average. Montana is better however on average than North Dakota State in not giving up points to the opponents by 3.297 points.

This game will be more entertaining for the fan out of the two FCS National Semifinal games.

I have a feeling Montana is going to win this game for whatever reason. Before their last game in which they won by only seven, Montana won thier last five games by at least 24 points and all but two of those games were by more than 30 points.

Montana actually lost the very next game they played in by 14 points after the game they won by seven points in the regular season! However, they also won two games by eight points in the regular season and they won by the very same margin the very next week or they played worse the very next week (but they still won the game anyway)!

So, if Montana wins on Saturday, today, it won't be by probably more than three to five points (if even that) since this is the postseason/playoffs!

In Montana's worst win of the season (by two points), they won by 40 points the very next week which was their best win (in terms of scoring, the scoreboard) of the season!

So, if Montana is really upset about last week's game, it could be a bloodbath against North Dakota State.

However, that is probably a 20 percent chance (or less) of actually happening! It is most likely going to be a close game! You could also say that Montana has a 40 percent chance (or less) to improve this week compared to last week after a bad game!

Before they won every game by at least 24 points five times in a row, for five games in a row, they won by single digits or outright lost the game!

Montana only has one loss on the season so far!

But yesterday, I picked North Dakota State to win, so I guess I am sticking with that "prediction".

North Dakota State has destroyed their opponents by 18 points in every game they have won this season. North Dakota State has had four bad games this season and two of those bad games they lost by at least 17 points.

The second game after a bad game (a loss) this season, in two out of those three games North Dakota State has played in, they won by a decent amount the second game after a bad game. But in all three of those games, they never scored (and won) by as many points as they did in the first game after a loss!

North Dakota won by one point two games ago and they won by 28 in their last game. So North Dakota State most likely isn't going to win by more than 27 on Saturday, if they win!

The one really bad thing for North Dakota State heading into today (Saturday) is that they lost by the most they have lost by this season in the second game after their only other single-digit point differential game!

North Dakota State also flipped the won-lost result by a difference of at least 41 points in their three previous bad/close games. They didn't do that last week. They only improved by 27 last week compared to the previous week when they only won by a single point!

If North Dakota State loses, based on how their season has gone so far, they should only lose to Montana by a maximum of 19 points today (if they even lose), based on their two games immediately after every single bad game (in terms of the scoreboard, scoring) they have played so far this season!

Overall, I just feel like if North Dakota State wins, it is because they have experienced struggles and failure and have had to change and adapt this season a lot more than Montana seemingly has, while Montana hasn't exactly had to adapt or change anything in several weeks!

Montana is very fortunate, very lucky, that they got to play an overtime game this late in the season last week! I just feel like it is inevitable Montana is going to lose (or at least really struggle, if they don't lose) since they have really dominated teams for the five straight games before last week!

So, I guess those are my thoughts on this North Dakota State at Montana college football game! I am "predicting" North Dakota State to win, but I just have "a feeling" Montana probably has the better narrative to "win" based on how the season has went so far.

So those are my thoughts right now on these FCS (Division I-AA) College Football semifinal games!

I could change my prediction (I reserve the right to change my predictions before game time) and pick Montana to win today, but I am probably not going to do that today before game time! It honestly would probably be better to see Montana win today and not North Dakota State for entertainment reasons/purposes.

I mean, do you really want to see a three-loss North Dakota State team go up against an undefeated South Dakota State team?

Or would you rather see a one-loss Montana team go up against South Dakota State?

Tweet/send me your answer at @Evan_Troxel on Twitter/X. Or send me a message on my various social media.