Rich Hill starting pitcher final preview before May 5th game vs. Los Angeles Angels

Rich Hill (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-orioles/2022/04/29/663337#game_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663337)

Rich Hill (0-1, 3.71 ERA) will be the starting pitcher today (Thursday) for the Boston Red Sox.

Other than a few mistakes which were season highs or lows (depending on the statistic) in his April 24th start at the Tampa Bay Rays (such as hitting a batter, giving up three walks and only having one strikeout), his last two starts have been better than his first two regular season starts.

Despite only pitching a season-low four innings pitched in each in his last two starts, he seems to have figured things out as he hasn't given up any runs.

The good thing for Hill is that he has pitched in three days games this regular season. So he should be ready.

The bad news is that the last game he pitched in was a night game and against what is probably expected to be one of the worst teams in the American League again this season, the Baltimore Orioles.

For whatever it is worth, or whatever it means, manager Alex Cora hasn't seen him pitch in a day game in person since his April 18th start vs. the Minnesota Twins.

In that game, ill gave up two home runs on Patriots' Day and Boston Marathon Monday. That is the only time he has given up home runs this regular season.

Without getting more detailed into it (or reading more into it) and if you wanted to make each Rich Hill start one very long inning and see how awful you can make him look for each start, Hill probably should have given up four runs (one additional run) in his start at the Detroit Tigers on April 12th.

On April 18th, he probably should have given up six runs (two additional runs), on April 24th he probably should have given up at least four runs (four additional runs). and on April 29th he would have given up no runs (zero additional runs).

So clearly, his last start was his best start of the regular season.

Hill's start against the Tampa Bay Rays on April 24th, I think shows (with my hypothetical situation of how many runs he could have actually given up) that he will find a way to get out of some tough situations again today.

I don't think Hill is going to be heading to the bullpen anytime soon. The Red Sox just need him to pitch and eat up innings.

Why do I say that? Because there is still unknown territory (at the Major League level) with how many innings pitched Garrett Whitlock can throw as a starter before he gets tired.

I think it is obvious Tanner Houck (2-1, 2.41 ERA) is going to be used as a long reliever in the bullpen because he didn't get a COVID-19 vaccine in time to travel with the team before the Red Sox left for Toronto (Canada) on April 24th.

As far as I have heard, he is still unvaccinated, and I hope he stays unvaccinated because I believe the COVID-19 vaccines are extremely dangerous and deadly.

Houck has only pitched on days Hill has pitched the last two times.

This could be a tremendous advantage for Houck and the Red Sox between now and the end of June. It may or may not be an advantage in July, and it likely will be a disadvantage in August, September and October.

It seems obvious the Red Sox don't want to have to reset their starting rotation again (which I really don't blame them) but it may cost them a win or two or three every 20 or 25 days if you don't shake things up once in a while.

Based on Hill's pitch counts and the number of pitches for strikes alone this regular season, it is obvious his first start was his best start, his fourth start (his last start) was his second best start, his second start was his third best and his third start was his worst start.

Here are Hill's pitches thrown and strikes for each start:

April 12th (at Detroit Tigers): 70 pitches-54 strikes

April 18th (vs. Minnesota Twins): 80 pitches-55 strikes,

April 24th (at Tampa Bay Rays): 62 pitches-35 strikes

April 29th (at Baltimore Orioles): 50 pitches-35 strikes

Hill has pitched 17 innings with 8 1/3 innings pitched of that being Red Sox wins and 8 2/3 innings pitched being Boston losses.

Hill's run average this regular season is 3.71, just like his ERA.

His run average, ERA, true run average and very true run average this regular season in wins is 3.24 and in losses it is 4.15.

Houck has pitched 18 2/3 innings with 12 of those innings in Red Sox wins and 6 2/3 in Boston losses.

Houck's run average and ERA is 2.41 this regular season, in wins it is 2.25 and in losses it is 2.70.

His true run average and very true run average is 1.81, in wins his true run average and very true run average is 1.31 and in losses his true run average and very true run average is 2.70.

Houck has actually won more and has a better winning percentage than Hill, but Hill has actually lost fewer games than Houck has this regular season.

Tanner Houck has actually won 1.333 games (three Red Sox wins) and lost .667 games (one Red Sox loss) for a win percentage of .667.

Rich Hill has actually won .926 games (two Red Sox wins) and lost .500 games (one Red Sox loss) for a win percentage of .649.

If Boston won every game Houck pitched in (5 games), he would have 2.097 wins, and if the Red Sox lost every game he gave up runs in, Houck would have 1.250 losses (out of two possible losses) for a percentage of .627.

If the Red Sox won every game Hill pitched in (4 games), he would have 1.944 wins and if Boston lost every game he gave up runs in, Hill would have 1.500 losses (out of two possible losses) for a percentage of .565.

The Red Sox must feel like Rich Hill is going to help them more in the long-term as a starting pitcher than Tanner Houck will...for now.

Because Houck is clearly the better pitcher.

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NOTE: Very true run average and run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

FINAL NOTE: All statistics in this story are from after the May 4th, 2022, game and before the May 5th, 2022 game. This story was posted on Thursday, May 5th, 2022.

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Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

NEW: The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

Matt Barnes .148 wins and 1.467 losses (.092 win pct.)

Ryan Brasier .259 wins and 1.258 losses (.171 win pct.)

Kutter Crawford .259 wins and .774 losses (.251 win pct.)

Tyler Danish .111 wins and .542 losses (.170 win pct.)

Austin Davis .296 wins and .239 losses (.554 win pct.)

Jake Diekman .741 wins and .925 losses (.445 win pct.)

Nathan Eovaldi 1.074 wins and .833 losses (.563 win pct.)

Rich Hill .926 wins and .500 losses (.649 win pct.)

Tanner Houck 1.333 wins and 0.667 losses (.667 win pct.)

Nick Pivetta 0.000 wins and 2.944 losses (.000 win pct.)

Kevin Plawecki .000 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.)

Hansel Robles .667 wins and 1.050 losses (.388 win pct.)

Hirokazu Sawamura .222 wins and 1.106 losses (.167 win pct.)

John Schreiber .111 wins and 0 losses (1.000 win pct.)

Matt Strahm .630 wins and 0.167 losses (.791 win pct.)

Phillips Valdez 0 wins and .828 losses (.000 win pct.)

Michael Wacha 2.407 wins and .333 losses (.878 win pct.)

Garrett Whitlock .815 wins and 1.367 losses (.374 win pct.)

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Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

NEW: The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

Matt Barnes .950 wins and 1.467 losses (.393 win pct.) 8 1/3 innings pitched

Ryan Brasier .907 wins and 2.425 losses (.272 win pct.) 8 innings pitched

Kutter Crawford .755 wins and 1.096 losses (.408 win pct.) 7 innings pitched

Tyler Danish .520 wins and 0.542 losses (.490 win pct.) 4 2/3 innings pitched

Austin Davis 1.286 wins and .525 losses (.710 win pct.) 11 2/3 innings pitched

Jake Diekman .960 wins and 1.032 losses (.482 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Nathan Eovaldi 3.227 wins and 2.119 losses (.604 win pct.) 28 2/3 innings pitched

Rich Hill 1.944 wins and 1.500 losses (.565 win pct.) 17 innings pitched

Tanner Houck 2.097 wins and 1.250 losses (.627 win pct.) 18 2/3 innings pitched

Nick Pivetta 2.399 wins and 2.944 losses (.449 win pct.) 20 2/3 innings pitched

Kevin Plawecki .125 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.) 1 inning pitched

Hansel Robles 1.131 wins and 2.050 losses (.355 win pct.) 10 1/3 innings pitched

Hirokazu Sawamura .975 wins and 1.106 losses (.469 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

John Schreiber .278 wins and 0 losses (1.000 win pct.) 2 1/3 innings pitched

Matt Strahm .956 wins and 0.750 losses (.560 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Phillips Valdez 1.204 wins and 0.828 losses (.593 win pct.) 10 1/3 innings pitched

Michael Wacha 2.949 wins and 2.000 losses (.596 win pct.) 26 innings pitched

Garrett Whitlock 2.337 wins and 1.367 losses (.631 win pct.) 21 2/3 innings pitched

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Wins, Losses, Holds, Blown Saves and Saves that everybody understands

Matt Barnes 0-2 Blown Saves 1 Saves 1

Ryan Brasier Hold 2, Blown Saves 2

Kutter Crawford 1-1