What your NCAA Division 1 Women's Basketball Tournament Bracket should look like 2021-2022

Stanford Cardinal 2020-2021 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball National Champions

Photo Credit: https://sjsa.org/stanford-2021-womens-basketball-national-champions/

NOTE: Much of this post was written on Saturday, March 12th, 2022 and posted on Sunday, March 13th, 2022

As I am writing this, in Women’s NCAA Division I college basketball, Iowa State and Texas are battling in the fourth quarter in the final minutes of the Big 12 Conference Tournament semifinals and Delaware and Towson are doing the same thing in the CAA Tournament semifinals as well.

Twenty-two teams still could make the NCAA Tournament (assuming anyone who lost in their conference tournament is automatically out of the NCAA Tournament) who are not one of the top 68 teams based on a ranking analysis combining a team’s winning percentage and their scoring margin with the ranking analysis data before games were played today (Saturday) March 12th, 2022.

Four of those team have already clinched a conference tournament championship, so they are in the NCAA Tournament. Those teams are: Kentucky (SEC), Longwood (Big South), Montana State (Big Sky) and UT Arlington (Sun Belt).

Alabama State (SWAC) lost today (Saturday) so they obviously aren’t going to be in the NCAA Tournament and Southern Illinois (MVC) lost today as well, and they are one of the last teams who will be considered for an NCAA Tournament bid, but I don’t think they should get in the NCAA Tournament at the moment. Objectively, they are the first team who should not get into the NCAA Tournament.

So that means objectively, 46 teams are already in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament while the rest are on the bubble at the moment.

Who are those 46 teams? I will tell you momentarily. And what does the bracket look like? I don’t know yet. The NCAA has to decide that.

What SHOULD the NCAA Tournament Bracket look like? Well, I am going to show you right now.

Before I say anything else, the Final Four this year is in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and the four regionals will take place in Bridgeport, Connecticut; Greensboro, North Carolina; Wichita, Kansas; and Spokane, Washington.

OK, so here is what I am predicting that the NCAA Tournament bracket will look like right now:

Bridgeport, Connecticut:

#1 South Carolina vs. #16 UAlbany or #16 Longwood

#2 UConn vs. #15 Bucknell

#3 Princeton vs. #14 Indiana

#4 UCF vs. #13 Columbia

#5 Toledo vs. #12 Buffalo

#6 Stony Brook vs. #11 Fairfield

#7 Drexel vs. #10 Jacksonville State

#8 UMass vs. #9 Rhode Island

Greensboro Regional:

#1 NC State vs. #16 Georgia or #16 Kentucky

#2 Louisville vs. #15 USC Upstate

#3 Liberty vs. #14 Northern Iowa

#4 North Carolina vs. #13 Maryland

#5 Jackson State vs. #12 Delaware

#6 Towson vs. #11 Virginia Tech

#7 Ohio State vs. #10 Troy

#8 Dayton vs. #9 Campbell

Wichita Regional:

#1 Florida Gulf Coast vs. #16 Louisiana or #16 UT Arlington

#2 Stephen F. Austin vs. #15 Cleveland State

#3 Baylor vs. #14 Oklahoma

#4 IUPUI vs. #13 Tennessee

#5 LSU vs. #12 Youngstown State

#6 Missouri State vs. #11 Mercer

#7 Iowa vs. #10 Ole Miss

#8 Belmont vs. #9 Michigan

Spokane Regional:

#1 BYU vs. #16 Colorado or #16 Montana State

#2 Stanford vs. #15 New Mexico

#3 South Dakota vs. #14 Creighton

#4 Iowa State vs. #13 Notre Dame

#5 Texas vs. #12 Murray State

#6 Gonzaga vs. #11 Arizona

#7 UNLV vs. #10 South Dakota State

#8 Nebraska vs. #9 Middle Tennessee

Obviously, the worst eight teams who make the tournament will play on March 16th or 17th.

After knowing Saturday’s final score results, the following changes were made to my bracket predictions. None of the 15 and 16 seeds are geographically accurate, because seeding takes priority before deciding where a team goes to play game(s) at:

Bridgeport, Connecticut Regional:

#1 South Carolina vs. #16 Longwood

#2 UConn vs. #15 Bucknell or #15 UAlbany

Greensboro, North Carolina Regional:

#1 NC State vs. #16 Bryant/Mount St. Mary’s winner or #16 Howard

#2 Louisville vs. #15 USC Upstate or #15 Charlotte

Wichita, Kansas Regional:

#1 Florida Gulf Coast vs. #16 SE Louisiana/Incarnate Word winner or Hawaii

#2 Stephen F. Austin vs. #15 UT Arlington or #15 American

Spokane, Washington Regional:

#1 BYU vs. #16 Illinois State or #16 Montana State

#2 Stanford vs. #15 Kentucky

Rankings in order of the 15 and 16 seeds if they make the NCAA Tournament: 1. Bucknell, 2. USC Upstate, 3. UAlbany, 4. Charlotte, 5. UT Arlington, 6. American, 7. Kentucky, 8. Southeastern Louisiana, 9. Howard, 10. Longwood, 11. Montana State, 12. Hawaii, 13. Mount St. Mary’s, 14. Illinois State, 15. Incarnate Word, 16. Bryant

Teams who were not in the Top 68 but won their Conference Tournament: Charlotte, Hawaii, Howard, Kentucky, Longwood, Montana State, UT Arlington

Games on Sunday which will determine one team (from each game) who will get in the NCAA Tournament:

1. Bryant (needs to win) vs. Mount St. Mary’s (needs to win)

2. Incarnate Word (needs to win) vs. Southeastern Louisiana (needs to win)

3. American (needs to win) vs. Bucknell (needs to win and a Northern Iowa win/Illinois State loss)

4. Illinois State (needs to win) vs. Northern Iowa (already in)

5. Delaware (already in) vs. Drexel (already in)

6. Baylor (already in) vs. Texas (already in)

Bubble Teams (must win to get in, otherwise, they won’t get in): American, Bryant, Illinois State, Incarnate Word, Mount St. Mary’s, Southeastern Louisiana

Teams who got eliminated from the NCAA Tournament on Saturday: Cleveland State, Colorado, Georgia, New Mexico, Louisiana

Teams who need help:

Bucknell (needs to win or for Illinois State to lose vs. Northern Iowa).

USC Upstate (needs Bucknell and Northern Iowa to both win to get in)

First Four Out (after the teams who got eliminated on Saturday):

South Florida

DePaul

Old Dominion

Kansas City

Next Four Out:

Southern Illinois

Oregon

Georgia Southern

Georgia Tech

Teams who probably won’t get in the NCAA Tournament because money is supposedly more important:

All of the teams that Charlie Creme (who writes for ESPN.com) says that are in the NCAA Tournament that I don't say or agree should be in the NCAA Tournament.

What parts of Charlie Crème’s NCAA Tournament bracket (after Saturday night's games) are currently wrong, meaning that those teams he listed as being in the NCAA Tournament objectively probably should not be?

First Four games: Mt. St. Mary’s, SE Louisiana, Florida State and Villanova

Bridgeport, Connecticut Regional: Colorado, Kansas, Oregon, Missouri, Florida, South Florida, American

Greensboro, North Carolina Regional: Miami, Washington State, Georgia

Wichita, Kansas Regional: Utah, Arkansas

Spokane, Washington Regional: Georgia Tech, Kansas State

(NOTE: The teams above this sentence should not be in the Women's NCAA Tournament. If much earlier in this story, I said they should be in the NCAA Tournament, then they should be in the NCAA Tournament.)

The top 32 teams to make the Women’s NIT:

#1 seeds: Bucknell & USC Upstate (if they don’t make the NCAA Tournament); Cleveland State, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia

#2 seeds: Louisiana, South Florida, DePaul, Old Dominion

#3 seeds: Kansas City, Southern Illinois, Oregon, Georgia Southern

#4 seeds: Georgia Tech, Northern Kentucky, Green Bay, Grand Canyon

#5 seeds: Portland, Kansas, Louisiana Tech, Villanova

#6 seeds: Tulane, Quinnipiac, Utah, Lehigh

#7 seeds: UC Irvine, A&M-Corpus Christi, Long Beach State, Marquette

#8 seeds: Vermont, Morgan State, American, College of Charleston

Additional 10 teams:

Montana, Coastal Carolina, Colorado State, Manhattan, Kent State, Austin Peay, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee Tech, Boston College, Stetson