The Twelve Days Before The College Football Playoff. Day 1: Committee unwilling to put two teams fr

Yes, we’re six days away from Christmas so I thought, “Why not write several stories about the College Football Playoff?” So today is day number one of the Twelve Days Before the College Football Playoff where I will examine this season’s College Football Playoff.

The College Football Playoff Committee has decided that the top four teams in the Power Five conferences are likely going to be the top four selections in the College Football Playoff for the foreseeable future. They have said to date they DO NOT want to pick four College Football Playoff teams from three or fewer conferences. The committee apparently wants to be loyal to the top four teams in the Power Five Conferences.

The committee has also said that teams can make the playoff if they play ranked opponents. Western Michigan (13-0) has not played a ranked opponent all season, and they are the MAC Champions. Western Michigan certainly earned the right to be in the Playoff by winning all of their games.

The next three sentences after this one are undeniable truths about what would have happened no matter what had happened during conference championship weekend:

1. The top ten ranked teams before championship weekend were the only teams who had any shot of making this season’s College Football Playoff. Western Michigan was ranked seventeenth.

2. Nobody expected that the Florida Gators would have made the College Football Playoff even if they did beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Title Game.

3. There’s an argument that at least one team from the Big Ten Conference will be left out of the College Football Playoff.

Sentence number three is what I want to focus on.

To make that point, the above headline to this story might be the first time in the College Football Playoff Era in which it will mean something. Why? The Ohio State Buckeyes are the first team to make the Playoff without winning their conference championship (2016-17). The Buckeyes also were the first team to win a College Football Playoff Game as the lower seed (2014-15), the first #4 seed to win the College Football Playoff Championship Game Championship (2014-15) and the inaugural College Football Playoff Champion (2014-15).

I thought the Committee should have put Ohio State in the Playoff last year. Why? Well, just look at what Ohio State has done since Urban Meyer has been the head coach. They have not lost two games yet in one season and Meyer currently is near the end of his fifth season. Not only that, but the Buckeyes were the #2 team in the country in 2015-16 in average scoring differential after conference championship weekend. Oklahoma was #1. And Ohio State was the defending national champions last year.

Let’s look at this season.

According to the College Football Playoff Committee, the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) were unequivocally better than the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2), this season’s champions of the Big Ten Conference.

The Michigan Wolverines (10-2) also arguably should be in the College Football Playoff this season as well because they largely dominated their opponents this year. The Wolverines won by at least 17 or more points in seven out of the ten games they won. Michigan only lost by a total of four points this season. Ohio State has only lost by three points. Clemson has only lost by one point. And Alabama has not lost a game yet this season.

If we look at the four teams in the College Football Playoff (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Washington) it’s hard to say that any of the four teams in the College Football Playoff don’t belong. If we specifically look at points scored for and points scored against throughout the entire season, Clemson doesn’t belong in the playoff, Michigan does!

Why? Michigan is a better team (based only on average point differential) than Clemson. Do you want to know what Michigan’s average point differential was after conference championship weekend? The same as Ohio State’s: +28.5. And guess where it’s ranked in the country? Number two.

Alabama was number one at +28.7, Ohio State +28.5, Michigan +28.5 and then Washington at +27.3. Clemson’s was +21.8, good for seventh in the nation.

In fact, the number-two average point differential team in the nation has always been shafted (in some way) in the brief three-season history of the College Football Playoff: Baylor in 2014-15 (24.6), Ohio State in 2015-16 (21) and Michigan this season (28.5).

Let’s give the committee some credit though. This has been the best year to date of the College Football Playoff top four selections based only on average point differential. They got three of the four teams correct: Alabama, Ohio State and Washington. Clemson was the incorrect one. In previous season’s they only got one out of the top four correct.

I think the only way the College Football Playoff Committee is going to select two teams from one conference in the future is if one team has one loss and the other team has zero losses.

There have been two great College Football Playoff games (the 2014-15 semifinal between Ohio State and Alabama and the 2015-16 National Championship Game between Alabama and Clemson) and four “dud” playoff games (the other four playoff games). Nobody can really say with certainty if the committee does not care about which teams (and conferences by extension) get into the Playoff because there have only been six games so far. Season three of the Playoff will commence at 3 p.m. Eastern Time on December 31st with the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Check back tomorrow (Tuesday) for my next story.