My Major League Baseball 2019 playoffs predictions
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The 2019 Major League Baseball playoffs starts tonight (Tuesday), and I just wanted to offer up my predictions on how I think it will go. I honestly don’t know how many of the predictions I will get right.
But before I do that, let’s recap a few things.
The American League teams in the playoffs are the Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays. That’s the order of the teams based on their won-lost records during the regular season.
The Astros, Yankees and Athletics were in the playoffs last year. So I think it’s a safe bet to say one of those teams will be representing the American League in the World Series.
For the Astros, they have won the most games in their history during the regular season for the second straight year and have won 101+ games for the third straight year. They won 107 games this season and 103 in 2018.
The Astros were in the playoffs last year and lost to the eventual World Series Champion Boston Red Sox four games to one. They have also lost to the eventual World Series champion the last three times they haven’t won the World Series (2005, 2015 and 2018).
Houston won the 2017 World Series over the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven games.
The Yankees have won 100+ games for the second straight season and the sixth time since 2000. This just might be New York’s year to win it all as they have lost in the playoffs the past two seasons to the eventual World Series champions.
Like Houston and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the N.L. in 2018, New York just wasn’t competitive in their season-ending playoff series (in the division series) to the Boston Red Sox in 2018 in which all three teams all won just one game in each series.
The Yankees are going to rest easy watching the A.L. Wild Card Game because they were forced to play in it the previous two seasons.
The Athletics have won 97 games in 2018 and 2019 and might have the inside track to getting to the World Series as American League Champions because they haven’t been as successful in the regular season as Houston and New York.
They have lost their last four playoff appearances in their opening round playoff series and have lost their opening round playoff series eight of the last nine times since the start of the millennium.
This team hasn’t been back to the World Series since 1990, but at least they won the World Series in 1989 unlike the Tampa Bay Rays who lost it in 2008.
The A’s would be making a mistake to fire Bob Melvin if they don’t win the A.L. Wild Card Game and he probably should be allowed to stick around through the 2021 season at least, no matter what happens.
However, time is running out for Melvin to go deep in the playoffs as this is his eighth full season and ninth season overall in which he was part of the A’s for the last two-thirds of 2011.
The Twins and Rays haven’t been back to the postseason in a while.
The Twins were last in the postseason in 2017, but prior to that they were last in the playoffs in 2010. They have lost their last six playoff series and didn’t win any games in any of the last four series.
Minnesota has only won only three playoff games this millennium (since the year 2000).
The Twins have fielded their second-best regular season team ever (101-61). Only the 1965 Twins won more games (102-60).
First-year manager Rocco Baldelli also probably deserves strong consideration for A.L. Manager of the Year.
The Rays were last in the postseason in 2013 and have lost in the division series three games to one the last two times they have been in the playoffs (2011 and 2013).
However, they did win the A.L. Wild Card game over the Cleveland Indians in 2013.
Tampa Bay has had a successful season as they tied for their second-best regular record ever (96-66), like the 2010 team did.
The Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox are going to be sitting at home this fall wondering what happened as both teams were in the playoffs the previous three years.
The National League teams in the playoffs are the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. Again, that’s the order of teams based on their regular season won-lost records.
The Dodgers, Braves and Brewers were in the playoffs last year.
There shouldn’t be any reason the Dodgers don’t get back to the World Series, but if they don’t the team is likely just exhausted and tired from the past six years where they have been to the NLCS in four out of those six seasons and have won now seven straight division titles.
Exiting the playoffs early in 2019 might not be a bad thing for Los Angeles. This is the best Dodgers team ever based on regular season wins with 106.
Los Angeles probably should have won the 2017 World Series, but they blew it. And they might have to pay for it again if they don’t win the World Series either this year or next year.
So now, discipline and grit is going to be something bothering the Dodgers this postseason and, for sure next year, if they don’t win it all this year.
The good thing going for L.A. is that this is only the fourth season for manager Dave Roberts and not like his seventh or eighth season.
The Braves haven’t won a playoff series since 2001. They have lost the division series in seven straight appearances.
Since after the 2005 season, Atlanta has only won three playoff games.
The Braves’ recent success last year and particularly this year (in terms of wins in the regular season) should be enough to get them into the NLCS. Particularly since they had four straight sub .500 seasons between 2014 and 2017.
Atlanta has room to win now and won’t suffer from playing too many games because they have only been to the postseason once since after the 2013 season (last year).
But don’t sleep on the St. Louis Cardinals. The one question is: Will there be enough accountability on the Braves to get them to the NLCS?
But Atlanta doesn’t seem like a World Championship team right now.
There’s not a ton to say about Milwaukee. They lost in the NLCS four games to three to the Dodgers in 2018 and probably just didn’t have enough playoff experience to get to the World Series last year.
The Brewers (96) were the better team than the Dodgers (92) last year in terms of regular season wins.
This team will likely lose in the early playoff rounds as they only scored three more runs than their opponents during the regular season.
Before last year, Milwaukee last made the postseason in 2011.
The Nationals were last in the playoffs in 2017 and Cardinals were last in the playoffs in 2015.
The Nationals haven’t won a playoff series in their four trips to the playoffs since being in Washington D.C.
But they have won at least two games in three of their four division series appearances.
Washington finished the regular season with a run differential of +149, second only to the Dodgers among N.L. playoff teams.
This season the Cardinals won 91+ games for the first time since 2015.
They scored fewer runs than any of the other N.L. playoff teams but they were the fifth-best team in the majors to not allow the opponents to score.
The Cards will have some energy on offense this postseason and be able to run because they didn’t score as many runs as other teams did.
St. Louis is now resuming where they left off when they only gave up 525 runs to the opponents (during the regular season) in 2015.
The Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs will be wondering what they are going to do for the next month since they both were in the playoffs the past two years and the Cubs haven’t missed the playoffs since 2014.
And the Cubs have to find a new manager now who can continue to help them win games.
My predictions:
American League:
Wild Card: Athletics over Rays
Division Series: Astros over Athletics; Yankees over Twins
Championship Series: Astros over Yankees
National League:
Wild Card: No Prediction, Vacated Prediction because the game is going on right now (But the Nationals should beat the Brewers)
Division Series: Dodgers over N.L. Wild Card winner; Braves over Cardinals (this was a tough prediction)
Championship Series: Dodgers over Braves
World Series: Astros over Dodgers
Final Thoughts: I don’t feel confident in any of my Astros predictions. They are by far going to be the most tested team of the postseason.
The Dodgers will win the World Series if they face the Rays, Athletics or Twins. I don’t feel confident picking the Dodgers over the Astros, but I won’t be surprised if it happens.
The Yankees will win the World Series against the Braves, Brewers or Nationals.
