Class C1 Boys' 2026 State Basketball Tournament Preview in Nebraska
- 3 days ago
- 10 min read
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By: Evan Troxel
This is hopefully my short preview of the Class C1 Boys' High School Varsity Basketball State Tournament Preview in Nebraska.
I will be posting content that I believe no other media outlet will cover.
My goal I guess is to try to show which teams may be good enough (or not good enough) to win the State Tournament in Class C1 through facts that are totally unbiased against or for any team.
This is the percentage of their opponents points so far this season that each team has scored so far this season:
#1 Ogallala Indians 173.11%
#8 Syracuse Rockets 127.27%
#4 Douglas County West Falcons 136.92%
#5 Grand Island Central Catholic Crusaders 126.70%
#2 Ashland-Greenwood Bluejays 169.16%
#7 Lincoln Christian Crusaders 116.26%
#3 Auburn Bulldogs 173.93%
#6 Gothenburg Swedes 128.12%
I know that may be a weird stat to understand, but it is simply your favorite team's total points scored this season divided by your favorite team's opponents total points scored this season.
So these could be the top teams during the State Tournament (by percentage) from best to worst:
#3 Auburn Bulldogs 173.93%
#1 Ogallala Indians 173.11%
#2 Ashland-Greenwood Bluejays 169.16%
#4 Douglas County West Falcons 136.92%
#6 Gothenburg Swedes 128.12%
#8 Syracuse Rockets 127.27%
#5 Grand Island Central Catholic Crusaders 126.70%
#7 Lincoln Christian Crusaders 116.26%
The Ogallala Indians have improved that stat compared to the previous year in back-to-back years for the first time since the 2019-20 season!
Ogallala's percentages during the Andy Gillen/Carter Brown Era look like this:
25-26: 173.11% (+23.6 percentage points compared to the previous year) 25-0 before state tournament
24-25: 149.51% (+12.58 percentage points) 24-1 before state tournament
23-24: 136.93% (-35.84 percentage points) 22-4 before state tournament
22-23: 172.77% (+39.09 percentage points) 26-0 before state tournament
21-22: 133.68% (-1.97 percentage points) 22-4 before state tournament
20-21: 135.65% (-6.53 percentage points) 19-5 before state tournament
19-20: 142.18% (+4.69 percentage points) 20-4 before state tournament
18-19: 137.49% (+44.07 percentage points compared to the previous year of 2017-18) 26-0 before state tournament
Ogallala scored 1944 points (77.76 average) so far this season and gave up 1123 points (44.92 average) so far this season and they have a point differential of +821 and an average point differential of +32.84.
The good news for Ogallala is they improved a significant amount last season (24-25 season) +12.58 percentage points compared to the 23-24 season and they improved by significantly more this season compared to last season by +23.6 percentage points!
So, in other words, Ogallala improved a good amount in the 24-25 season and they improved enough that it isn't an insignificant stat (or a meaningless stat), it is actually a very important stat!
Ogallala also didn't improve as much as they did during the 2018-19 season (+44.07 percentage points) or the 22-23 season (+39.09 percentage points) compared to the previous year!
So unless Ogallala has already reached their peak this season, they have plenty of room to still improve during the State Tournament.
Another way to describe this for people is that Ogallala has essentially put in the time and the miles to run a marathon really well better this season and last season than any other previous years during the Andy Gillen/Carter Brown era of being the head coach (2018 to Present). Last year for Ogallala was about setting the table and establishing a strong base so that they could perform at a very high level this season, something that perhaps or maybe previous Ogallala teams before the last couple of season lacked.
Ogallala didn't improve probably as much as they maybe would have liked to last season, but that has made them a lot better this season and this team should more likely than not be fresh to play well this year in the state tournament (unless they have already reached their peak this season)!
Ogallala had a drop in improvement of -35.84 percentage points during the 2023-24 season. So essentially, Ogallala relapsed during that season and because Ogallala didn't improve by 30 or more percentage points this season compared to last season (Ogallala improved by +23.6 percentage points this season), Ogallala should be in good shape this year at least for the State Tournament and they could still improve by anywhere from 25 to 40 percentage points compared to last year this year.
And remember, all of these stats are the entire season BEFORE the State Tournament started, it isn't the entire season!
These are the percentages for all of the other teams in the State Tournament in Class C1 before the state tournament the last three-plus seasons:
#8 Syracuse Rockets (18-8)
25-26: 127.27% (+17.33 percentage points compared to last season) 18-8 before state tournament
24-25: 109.94% (+8.72 percentage points) 15-10 before state tournament
23-24: 101.22% (-0.22 percentage points) 10-12 before state tournament
22-23: 101.44% (+26.58 percentage points) 13-11 before state tournament
Syracuse scored 1517 points (58.35 average) this season and gave up 1192 points (45.85 average) this season and they have a point differential of +325 and an average point differential of +12.5. Syracuse, like Ogallala, has improved their percentage in back-to-back seasons, so look out for them to possibly be a real threat at the State Tournament!
#4 Douglas County West (21-6)
25-26: 136.92% (+8.54 percentage points compared to last season) 21-6 before state tournament
24-25: 128.38% (-20.59 percentage points) 22-4 before state tournament
23-24: 148.97% (+23.97 percentage points) 22-3 before state tournament
22-23: 125.00% (+17.73 percentage points) 15-9 before state tournament
Douglas County West scored 1487 points (55.07 average) and gave up 1086 points (40.22 average) this season and they have a point differential of +401 and an average point differential of +14.85.
#5 Grand Island Central Catholic Crusaders (22-5)
25-26: 126.70% (-11.07 percentage points compared to last season) 22-5 before state tournament
24-25: 137.77% (+30.3 percentage points) 21-4 before state tournament
23-24: 107.47% (+6.61 percentage points) 12-11 before state tournament
22-23: 100.86% (-28.07 percentage points) 10-14 before state tournament
Grand Island Central Catholic scored 1400 points (51.85 average) and gave up 1105 points (40.93) this season so far and they have a point differential of +295 and an average point differential of +10.92. The fact that this team has negative percentage points compared to last season (unlike the three other teams that I have already evaluated) and they have more wins and fewer losses than two of those three teams, makes this team perhaps more dangerous than people realize as they obviously know how to win games!
#2 Ashland-Greenwood Bluejays (25-1)
25-26: 169.16% (+33.99 percentage points compared to last season) 25-1 before state tournament
24-25: 135.17% (-29.44 percentage points) 20-5 before state tournament
23-24: 164.61% (-0.03 percentage points) 24-2 before state tournament
22-23: 164.64% (-20.52 percentage points) 24-2 before state tournament
Ashland-Greenwood has scored 1563 points (60.12 average) so far this season and gave up 924 points (35.54 average) so far this season and they have a point differential of +639 and an average point differential of +24.58. Ashland-Greenwood has improved the most out of any team in Class C1 by percentage points compared to last season and that could be an asset or a detriment. The positive thing for Ashland-Greenwood is they are better this season than they were in any of the last three years before the state tournament based on percentage points compared to the previous year. The state champs from three of the last four years hopes to win again this year!
#7 Lincoln Christian Crusaders (18-8)
25-26: 116.26% (+12.52 percentage points compared to last season) 18-8 before state tournament
24-25: 103.74% (+14.4 percentage points) 14-10 before state tournament
23-24: 89.34% (-4.11 percentage points) 6-16 before state tournament
22-23: 93.45% (-20.85 percentage points) 9-15 before state tournament
Lincoln Christian has scored 1444 points (55.54 average) so far this season and gave up 1242 points (47.77 average) so far this season and they have a point differential of +202 and an average point differential of +7.77. Lincoln Christian, like Ogallala and Syracuse have improved their percentage points in back-to-back seasons. Lincoln Christian has improved their percentage points in back-to-back seasons and it might be enough to get a first round win at the State Tournament.
#3 Auburn Bulldogs (24-1)
25-26: 173.93% (+16.14 percentage points compared to last season) 24-1 before state tournament
24-25: 157.79% (-16.01 percentage points) 20-4 before state tournament
23-24: 173.80% (+15.08 percentage points) 26-0 before state tournament
22-23: 158.72% (+9.77 percentage points) 17-6 before state tournament
Auburn has scored 1548 points (61.92 average) so far this season and gave up 890 points (35.6 average) so far this season and they have a point differential of +658 and an average point differential of +26.32. Auburn perhaps should be the top team in this tournament. Auburn has got to be pretty hungry to win a State Title considering they haven't won it within the last four years after winning it three years straight from 2018-19 through 2020-21.
#6 Gothenburg Swedes (20-6)
25-26: 128.12% (+25.73 percentage points compared to last season) 20-6 before state tournament
24-25: 102.39% (-25.67 percentage points) 10-13 before state tournament
23-24: 128.06% (+16.05 percentage points) 16-7 before state tournament
22-23: 112.01% (+13.08 percentage points) 12-11 before state tournament
Gothenburg has scored 1508 points (58.00 average) so far this season and gave up 1177 points (45.27 average) so far this season and they have a point differential of +331 and an average point differential of +12.73. Gothenburg I think is going to have to hope Auburn is worn out from the last three-plus years and also that Auburn makes more mistakes than normal to get into the semifinal round. Gothenburg also must play loose and mostly mistake-free basketball.
Here's what you've all been waiting for...I saved it for the very very end!
This is the points for, points against, point differential and the average for all of those things for each team for the entire season (2025-26 season) so far up to this point BEFORE the State Tournament:
1 Ogallala Indians (25-0): 1944 points for (77.76) and 1123 points against (44.92) and +821 point differential (+32.84)
2 Ashland-Greenwood Bluejays (25-1): 1563 points for (60.12) and 924 points against (35.54) and +639 point differential (+24.58)
3 Auburn Bulldogs (24-1): 1548 points for (61.92) and 890 points against (35.60) and +658 point differential (+26.32)
4 Douglas County West Falcons (21-6): 1487 points for (55.07) and 1086 points against (40.22) and +401 point differential (+14.85)
5 Grand Island Central Catholic Crusaders (22-5): 1400 points for (51.85) and 1105 points against (40.93) and +295 point differential (+10.92)
6 Gothenburg Swedes (20-6): 1508 points for (58.00) and 1177 points against (45.27) and +331 point differential (+12.73)
7 Lincoln Christian Crusaders (18-8): 1444 points for (55.54) and 1242 points against (47.77) and +202 point differential (+7.77)
8 Syracuse Rockets (18-8): 1517 points for (58.35) and 1192 points against (45.85) and +325 point differential (+12.5)
In order by the first round matchups on Thursday, March 12th, 2026:
9:00 a.m. Central Time at Bob Devaney Sports Center in Lincoln, Nebraska
1 Ogallala Indians (25-0): 1944 points for (77.76) and 1123 points against (44.92) and +821 point differential (+32.84)
8 Syracuse Rockets (18-8): 1517 points for (58.35) and 1192 points against (45.85) and +325 point differential (+12.5)
10:45 a.m. Central Time at Bob Devaney Sports Center in Lincoln, Nebraska
4 Douglas County West Falcons (21-6): 1487 points for (55.07) and 1086 points against (40.22) and +401 point differential (+14.85)
5 Grand Island Central Catholic Crusaders (22-5): 1400 points for (51.85) and 1105 points against (40.93) and +295 point differential (+10.92)
The winners of the first two games in Class C1 will play at 9:00 a.m. Central Time on Friday, March 13th, 2026 at the Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska.
1:30 p.m. Central Time at Bob Devaney Sports Center in Lincoln, Nebraska
2 Ashland-Greenwood Bluejays (25-1): 1563 points for (60.12) and 924 points against (35.54) and +639 point differential (+24.58)
7 Lincoln Christian Crusaders (18-8): 1444 points for (55.54) and 1242 points against (47.77) and +202 point differential (+7.77)
3:15 p.m. Central Time at Bob Devaney Sports Center in Lincoln, Nebraska
3 Auburn Bulldogs (24-1): 1548 points for (61.92) and 890 points against (35.60) and +658 point differential (+26.32)
6 Gothenburg Swedes (20-6): 1508 points for (58.00) and 1177 points against (45.27) and +331 point differential (+12.73)
The winners of Games 3 and 4 will play at 10:45 a.m. Central on Friday, March 13th, 2026 at the Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska.
The State Championship Game is at 11:00 a.m. Central Time on Saturday, March 14th, 2026 at the Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska. The Third Place Game is also at 11:00 a.m. Central Time on Saturday, March 14th, 2026, at Lincoln Northeast High School.
Auburn and Ogallala are the top two offensive teams this season so far up to this point on average.
Ashland-Greenwood and Auburn are the top two defensive teams this season so far up to this point on average.
Auburn and Ogallala are the top two teams with the best average point differential this season so far up to this point.
If points for, points against and point differential on average do ultimately tell the story, Ashland-Greenwood, Auburn, Douglas County West and Ogallala will make it to the second round.
If points for, points against and point differential on average do ultimately tell the story, Auburn and Ogallala will make it to the State Championship Game in Class C1.
If points for, points against and point differential on average do ultimately tell the story, Ashland-Greenwood will win the third place game in Class C1.
If points for, points against and point differential on average do ultimately tell the story, Ogallala will win the State Championship in Class C1.
Everything I have said in this post is in no way my opinion at all, these are facts that this story has clearly shown.
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If you truly believe in free speech, be sure to follow me on Gab.com at Gab.com/Evan_Troxel immediately. Facebook and X want to take your free speech away immediately (and your freedoms) and totally get away with it! Gab is the best free speech website on the entire Internet and they are truthfully not bought off by individuals who can just suddenly immediately shut them down or ban them! I will be posting live top scorers for each team and the score during and immediately/shortly after the Ogallala High School Boys' basketball games at the State Tournament on Gab.com/Evan_Troxel. I may or may not post on Gab.com/Evan_Troxel for the Class C1 State Championship during the game (if Ogallala makes it to the State Title game) but I will post content on Gab immediately/shortly after the game!
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