It's not realistic for the Miami Marlins to win more than 73 games in 2020

(Photo Credit: sportslogos.net; Miami Marlins logo 2019-Present)

The Miami Marlins won only 57 games in 2019, their worst regular season win total since 1998 when they only won 54 games.

But thankfully, 2019 didn’t qualify as their worst season ever, just the worst season (in terms of wins) in the 2000s and 2010s.

But 2018 was actually worse than 2019 because of how much Miami didn’t improve from the previous year.

In 2018, they won 14 fewer games and 13 more losses than in 2017.

The 2019 team only won six fewer games than the 2018 squad (improvement) and seven more losses than the 2018 team (improvement) compared to the 2018 team vs. the 2017 team.

This current Marlins team is not a good team and they are likely going to have to endure a few more awful seasons over the next few years.

But Miami has lost so much recently that they are bound to be a lot better within the next 3-7 years.

The goal for 2020 is to really get within the wins range of 60 to 79 and then build off of that by 10 wins in 2021 by trying to win 70 to 89 games.

They really just need to start winning so that some star players will want to come play for Miami in a few years.

The 1998 season was their worst season when they lost 38 more games than they did in 1997, when they won their first World Series championship.

The Marlins only won 51 games in the strike-shortened season of 1994.

So if that season wasn’t shortened, they probably would have won at least 15 to 20 more games.

The Florida Marlins (as they were called then) improved by 16 games in 1995, their best improvement ever from the previous year (67 wins), but that was also in the strike shortened 1995 season, as well, before the season even started.

So it’s probably safe to say Florida would have won at least five more games in 1995 (maybe 10 more games) without a strike to start the season.

But what if we get rid of the 1998 outlier, where, clearly, the Marlins were tanking on purpose because everyone knows they sold or got rid of all of their best players (after winning it all in 1997)?

In that case, the 2018 season was Miami’s worst when they won 14 fewer games, won 63 games and only had to play 161 games instead of 162.

The 1994 season was also not good when Florida only won 51 games and won fewer 13 games than they did in their inaugural 1993 season.

So the lowest point for the Marlins in 2020 will be to only win 43 games.

If the 1998 season is any indicator, the win total would be so low in 2020 it should be impossible for Miami to finish with only 19 wins. Yes, you read that right, 19.

Like last season, and a few years before that, Miami is on their longest streak for not finishing a regular season over .500.

They haven’t finished over .500 since 2009, and will make it 11 straight seasons if they don’t finish over .500 in 2020.

The Marlins from 1998 to 2002 had five straight seasons without finishing above .500.

They won 15 more games in the years 2000 (79 wins) and 2014 (77 wins) than they did in the previous season.

This is how the Marlins did compared to the previous year:

In 2001, Florida only won three fewer games than in the previous year. In 2004, they won eight fewer games than in 2003. In 2006, Florida won five fewer games. In 2007 and 2010, they won seven fewer games than the previous year. In 2011, Florida won eight fewer games than in 2010. In 2012, Miami won three fewer games. In 2013, they won seven fewer games, and, in 2015, they won six fewer games. The Marlins won two fewer games in 2017 than they did in 2016. And in 2019, they won six fewer games than they did in 2018.

As outlined in the above paragraph, since the start of the 2001 season, the Marlins have won between one and nine fewer games than the previous year eleven times.

They have only lost 10 or more games than the previous season once (2018) in that entire timespan.

So the Miami-based team has been consistent to not falling in a big hole from the previous season over the last 19 seasons, and they likely should improve in 2020.

And if the Marlins don’t, they still should win at least 50 games, because the reality is if they don’t 50 games, they better at least win 48 games.

Otherwise, things will get really ugly in Miami if they don’t even win 48 games.

The most Miami is likely to improve in 2020 is by winning 16 more games and winning 73 total games.

Although it is unrealistic to expect them to win 20 additional games compared to the previous year (because they have never shown it in their history before), “the Marlins” probably easily could improve by that number in 2020 and win 77 games…if they get better.

In 2019, they won 57 games and lost 105 games.

What Miami should expect to do in 2020 is to win at least 67 games.

The reason for that is that they improved by 10 wins in 1999 after their 108 loss season in 1998.

The Marlins also improved by 15 wins in 2014 when they won 77 games compared to winning only 62 in 2013 and losing 100 games.

So between 67 and 72 (or 73) wins really is the goal for Miami, but they should be striving to be better than that in 2020.

The Marlins finished 29th in runs scored in the majors last year with 615 runs and were last in that category in the National League.

Miami finished 20th in the majors with a 4.74 ERA.

They finished 12th highest in the majors in runs allowed (808) and earned runs allowed (760).

The Marlins success (not including the players) really is on manager Don Mattingly, pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre and Chief Executive Officer and 2020 MLB Hall of Famer, Derek Jeter.

And the Miami-based Marlins have two World Series championships and have never won a division title in their entire history.