My Analysis for the WNBA on June 17th, 2023: Seattle Storm at Dallas Wings

By: Evan Troxel

Seattle Storm (SEA) at Dallas Wings (DAL), 2 p.m. Eastern Time/11 a.m. Pacific Time on CBS (TV)

This is the second game of the four-game regular season series and the only scheduled regular season game on a Saturday this year. Dallas won 95-91 at Seattle in the first matchup of the regular season between these two teams on Friday, May 26th.

Future regular season games:

Today 6/17 at DAL, 8/2 at SEA, 9/8 at DAL

This season:

Preseason:

SEA: 71.000 Points Per Game, 77.000 Points Against Per Game, -6.000 Point Differential

DAL: 79.000 Points Per Game, 80.000 Points Against Per Game, -1.000 Point Differential

Regular season:

SEA: 73.444 Points Per Game, 83.333 Points Against Per Game, -9.899 Point Differential

DAL: 83.800 Points Per Game, 84.400 Points Against Per Game, -0.600 Point Differential

The entire season (including preseason):

SEA: 73.200 Points Per Game, 82.700 Points Against Per Game, -9.500 Point Differential

DAL: 83.000 Points Per Game, 83.667 Points Against Per Game, -0.667 Point Differential

Regular season common opponents (which includes Phoenix Mercury)

SEA: 73.833 Points Per Game, 75.667 Points Against Per Game, -1.833 Point Differential

DAL: 80.400 Points Per Game, 82.400 Points Against Per Game, -2.000 Point Differential

Regular season common opponents (which includes Phoenix Mercury) plus (Seattle or Dallas, the opponent)

SEA: 76.286 Points Per Game, 78.429 Points Against Per Game, -2.143 Point Differential

DAL: 82.833 Points Per Game, 83.833 Points Against Per Game, -1.000 Point Differential

Regular season common opponents (which includes Phoenix Mercury) plus (Seattle or Dallas, the opponent) plus preseason final scores that are regular season common opponents (Phoenix Mercury only applies here):

Seattle Storm: 75.625 Points Per Game, 78.250 Points Against Per Game, -2.625 Point Differential

Dallas Wings: 82.833 Points Per Game, 83.833 Points Against Per Game, -1.000 Point Differential

In the 2022 regular season, Seattle won 3 of the 4 games against Dallas.

Seattle is on a one-game losing streak. They lost their last home game and they are on a two-game losing streak at home. They last their last road game and they are on a one-game losing streak on the road.

Dallas is on a two-game losing streak. They lost their last road game and they are on a four-game losing streak on the road. They lost their last home game and they are on a one game losing streak at home.

If Seattle wins:

SEA can become 3-7 with a win, 2-2 on the road

DAL can become 5-6 with a loss, 4-2 at home

If Dallas wins:

SEA can become 2-8 with a loss, 1-3 on the road

DAL can become 6-5 with a win, 5-1 at home

2022 Season:

Dallas won the first regular season matchup of the 2022 season at Seattle 68-51 (June 3rd).

Seattle won the first regular season matchup of the 2022 season at Dallas 89-88 (June 10th).

Seattle won the last regular season matchup of the 2022 season at Dallas 84-79 (June 12th).

Seattle won the last 2022 regular season matchup at Seattle 83-74 (July 12th).

Seattle’s won lost record against Dallas: 2022: 3-1, 2021: 2-1, 2020: 2-0, 2019: 3-0, 2018: 3-1, 2017: 2-1, 2016: 1-2, 2015: 1-3

Seattle won the last matchup between these two teams on a Saturday. Seattle is 2-1 against Dallas on a Saturday since the start of the 2015 season with all of those games being played in Dallas.

Additional notes (optional to read I guess, otherwise scroll down until you see lots of dots):

2021 Season:

Seattle won the first matchup of the 2021 regular season 100-97 at Dallas in Overtime on Saturday, May 22nd, 2021.

Seattle won the first game of the 2021 regular season at Seattle 105-102 in Overtime (June 4th).

Dallas won the last game of the 2021 regular season at Seattle 68-67 (June 6th).

2020 Season:

Seattle won the first matchup of the 2020 regular season at Dallas 83-65 on August 14th.

Seattle won the only matchup of the 2020 regular season at Seattle 107-95 on September 9th.

2019 Season:

Seattle won the first regular season matchup of 2019 at Seattle 95-81 on July 12th.

Seattle won the last regular season matchup of 2019 at Seattle 69-57 on August 8th.

Seattle won the last regular season matchup of 2019 at Dallas 78-64 on September 8th.

2018 Season:

Dallas won 94-90 at Dallas on Saturday, June 2nd, 2018.

Seattle won 97-76 at Dallas on June 24th, 2018.

Seattle won 91-84 at Seattle on July 14th, 2018.

Seattle won 84-68 at Seattle on August 19th, 2018.

…………………………………………………………….

On the ESPN.com website (in the morning Eastern Time on Saturday, June 17th):

ESPN’s matchup predictor: SEA 39.3%, DAL 60.7%

Dallas is -8.5 as I am typing this at about 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday.

Over/Under: 165 as I am typing this at about 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Saturday.

Prediction conclusion: Seattle has dominated the series the previous five seasons before this season going 13-3 and 13-4 if you also count this season in addition to the previous five seasons. If Seattle loses on Saturday (today), it will be the first time they haven’t won (or at least split) a season series against Dallas since the 2016 season. Dallas has only won one game against Seattle every regular season in which they actually won any games during the past six seasons (including this season so far). Seattle is on a six-game winning streak at Dallas, with Dallas last winning the first game of the 2018 regular season at Dallas. The last time Dallas won the first game of the regular season at Dallas was also that same day on June 2nd, 2018. Before Dallas’ last win against Seattle, Seattle won three straight against Dallas in the 2022 regular season. Seattle last lost the second game of the regular season against Dallas (at Seattle) in 2016 (regardless of venue/stadium). The last time Seattle lost the second game of the regular season against Dallas (at Dallas) was on Sunday, June 28th, 2015.

Dallas I believe clearly has the advantage with a point differential better than Seattle in the preseason, the regular season and the entire season (including the preseason). This game however might be the ultimate toss-up game (out of any WNBA game all season) with Dallas having a good offense and a bad defense and Seattle having a bad offense and a good defense for the preseason, regular season and the entire season (including the preseason).

Seattle believe it or not actually had a better point differential than Dallas when it came to common opponents during the regular season (not including each team’s opponent today). When you throw in each team’s opponent today to the previous sentence, Dallas has a point differential advantage and when you also include preseason scores from common opponents during the regular season in addition to what I just mentioned in this sentence, Dallas still has the point differential advantage.

I don’t think Seattle is going to win today’s game because of what has happened the past two days in the WNBA and the fact that this game is being televised on CBS. The WNBA doesn’t want to fool anybody (with a TV deal with CBS) and have fans think that Seattle is actually going to win today’s game. I was stupid and picked all of the home teams to win on Thursday (which I knew was probably going to be a mistake, and it was). On Thursday, the Las Vegas Aces won their home game I believe while the other two teams who won (the Atlanta Dream and the Indiana Fever) were the road teams (and at least one of those teams who won really weren’t expected to win). Yesterday, Friday, Vegas and the people who rig and control the outcomes of these games really outsmarted me and allowed Minnesota to defeat Los Angeles in a game Los Angeles had no real reason to lose (since they just played at Minnesota and lost to them on Sunday). In the other Friday game, Washington won in a game I thought they might lose to Phoenix since Washington was the home team (and Los Angeles was also the home team and I expected Los Angeles not to lose to Minnesota twice in a row). So I did not think both home teams were going to win (which I ultimately ended up being correct about), but I incorrectly predicted both games on Friday. Picking Seattle to win today is just insanity (despite their recent past against Dallas) as Dallas will be on their longest losing streak of the entire season if they lose today (and Seattle won against a bad Phoenix team on Tuesday).

Official Prediction to win: Dallas Wings

Official Prediction to lose: Seattle Storm

My regular season won-lost prediction record (heading into today's game): 21-14

Be sure to use the hashtags #Predictions and #WNBAPredictions when sharing my story.