Starting Pitcher Preview: Garrett Whitlock versus the Los Angeles Angels. BREAKING: Joe Maddon fired

Garrett Whitlock on June 1st, 2022 against the Cincinnati Reds. (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/reds-vs-red-sox/2022/06/01/663296#game_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663296)

By: Evan Troxel

Garrett Whitlock (2-1, 3.02 ERA) is the starting pitcher tonight (Tuesday) for the Boston Red Sox.

The opposing starting pitcher for the Los Angeles Angels is officially unknown at this present time.

That is now in part because as I am typing this, this is breaking news, Joe Maddon has just been fired as the manager of the Los Angeles Angels as I am typing this at 4:45 p.m. Eastern Time/1:45 p.m. Pacific Time.

Jeff Fletcher on Twitter (@JeffFletcherOCR) tweeted at 1:10 p.m. Pacific Time that Maddon had been fired.

Phil Nevin will be the interim manager for the Angels.

The Angels are currently on a twelve-game losing streak and have a record of 27-29 this regular season.

The Boston Red Sox are 28-27 this regular season and seem to have benefited a lot at the moment from the Angels losing streak.

These next three games for the Angels, including tonight, against the Red Sox could be huge at the end of the regular season.

First pitch is scheduled for 6:38 p.m. Pacific Time (9:38 p.m. Eastern Time).

It seems obvious that the starting pitcher tonight for the Angels is going to be a player from Triple-A or Double-A, Shohei Ohtani (3-4, 3.99 ERA) or Reid Detmers (2-2, 4.20 ERA).

The Triple-A or Double-A pitcher seems like the most likely option at this point since it is already 3 p.m. Eastern Time as I am typing this (and already 12 p.m. Pacific Time) and a starter for the Angels has not been named.

So I will mention Ohtani’s and Detmers’ statistics somewhere in this story since they are both probably going to still pitch in this series against the Red Sox on Wednesday or Thursday if not tonight (Tuesday).

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The last time Garrett Whitlock pitched, he finally picked up his first career Major League victory in a start.

Based on the success rate in getting people out and doing everything possible to not allow the opponent to score (regardless if the Boston Red Sox win or not), Whitlock is the 11th-best pitcher on the Red Sox right now and the sixth-best starting pitcher (and the fifth-best starting pitcher with a minimum of at least two starts).

Whitlock is the worst pitcher for Boston right now who has a success rate of over .500 (50% percent). His success rate is .503.

He has helped the Red Sox actually win 2.704 games and actually lose 1.577 games.

This regular season, his winning percentage is ranked 6th for Boston and is the second-best among starting pitchers with at least two starts (and the third-best among all Red Sox starting pitchers).

Whitlock’s actual win percentage is .632.

Boston’s record is 7-5 when Whitlock pitches (and 4-4 when he starts) this regular season.

He has actually given up a run(s) in four of the five games Boston has lost when he pitches.

Whitlock has pitched in 24 1/3 innings pitched in Boston victories and 20 1/3 innings pitched in Red Sox losses, for a total of 44 2/3 innings pitched this regular season.

He has given up 10.5 true runs and very true runs in Boston wins and 6 true runs and very true runs in Red Sox losses.

Whitlock has given up 11 runs (10 earned) in Boston wins and 6 runs (and 5 earned runs) in Red Sox losses.

He has a 3.32 true run average and a 3.32 very true run average which is worse than his 3.02 earned run average (ERA).

So Whitlock is a worse pitcher than his current ERA says.

He also has a 3.43 run average (which is ranked 5th for Boston).

Whitlock’s true run average and very true run average is ranked sixth on the team while his ERA is ranked 7th.

He also has 2.081 wins above the average Boston Red Sox pitcher’s actual win total this regular season (which is ranked 4th on the team).

Whitlock is ranked 5th in innings pitched on the Red Sox and only Tanner Houck has pitched fewer innings pitched (regardless if they started the game or not) among starting pitchers who have started at least two games this regular season.

…

Ohtani’s success rate is .612 and Detmers’ is .576. Both are better than Garrett Whitlock.

Ohtani has actually helped the Angels win 2.000 games and has actually helped them lose 2.950 games.

The Angels are 3-6 when he has pitched this regular season and are on a four-game losing streak when he pitches.

Detmers has actually helped the Angels win 2.393 games and has actually helped them lose 1.461 games.

Los Angeles is 4-5 when he pitches this regular season and also are on a four-game losing streak when he pitches.

Whitlock has actually won more than Ohtani and Detmers.

Despite the fact that Detmers and Whitlock have been a part of five losses for their respective teams, Detmers has actually lost less than Whitlock and Ohtani.

Whitlock’s .632 actual win percentage is higher than Detmers .621 and Ohtani’s .404.

Detmers, like Whitlock, has given up a run(s) in four out of his five starts when their respective teams lost.

Ohtani has given up runs every time the Angels have lost in his starts and only once has Ohtani given up runs and Los Angeles still won the game.

Detmers has pitched 22 innings in Angels wins and 23 innings when they have lost for a total of 45 innings.

Ohtani has pitched 18 innings in Los Angeles wins and 29 1/3 innings when they have lost for a total of 47 1/3 innings. He has pitched more innings than Detmers or Whitlock.

Detmers has given up 8 very true runs in Los Angeles wins and 11.25 very true runs in their losses.

Ohtani has given up 2 very true runs in Angels wins and 18 very true runs in their losses.

So Whitlock has given up more very true runs in Red Sox wins than Detmers or Ohtani have in Angels wins.

But Whitlock has given up fewer very true runs when Boston loses compared to Detmers or Ohtani who have given up more very true runs than Whitlock in Los Angeles losses.

Detmers has given up 9 runs (9 earned runs) in Angels wins and 12 runs (12 earned runs) in their losses.

Ohtani has given up 2 runs (and 2 earned runs) in Los Angeles wins and 19 runs (and 19 earned runs) in their losses.

Whitlock has given up fewer runs and earned runs than Detmers or Ohtani have this regular season.

Detmers has a 4.20 ERA (and a 4.20 run average) and a 3.85 very true run average and a 3.85 very true earned run average.

Ohtani has a 3.99 ERA (and a 3.99 run average) and a 3.80 very true run average and a 3.80 very true earned run average.

Detmers and Ohtani's very true run average makes them better pitchers than what their ERA says they are.

Garrett Whitlock has a better very true run average than Detmers or Ohtani, but Ohtani has a better true run average than Detmers.

...

MORE NOTES: Very true run average and true run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

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EXPLANATION OF ACTUAL WINS AND LOSSES (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

The above paragraph talks about true runs and not very true runs when a pitcher allows a run(s). Otherwise, everything else can apply to anything that has to do with true runs and very true runs.

NOTE: For the purposes of this story alone, no pitcher is blamed for allowing a baserunner to start any extra inning at second base (but any pitcher who pitches in extra innings will be blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance any additional bases if that baserunner eventually scores). The previous sentence talks about very true runs and not true runs.

EXPLANATION OF A PITCHER'S PERFORMANCE (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

NOTE: To not confuse people, in true runs, extra-inning pitchers do get blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if they score. In true runs, I have always blamed the extra-inning pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if that baserunner eventually scores.

In very true runs, no pitcher gets blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base. But any extra-inning pitcher who allows the baserunner to start at second base who eventually scores will get blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance one or two bases if that baserunner eventually scores.