Starting Pitcher Preview: Michael Wacha vs. Noah Syndergaard

Michael Wacha of the Boston Red Sox (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/reds-vs-red-sox/2022/05/31/663297#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663297)

Noah Syndergaard of the Los Angeles Angels (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/angels-vs-yankees/2022/05/31/661331#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=661331)

By: Evan Troxel

Boston Red Sox pitcher Michael Wacha (3-1, 2.43 ERA) and Los Angeles Angels pitcher Noah Syndergaard (4-3, 4.02 ERA) will both be making their ninth starts of the regular season on Monday night in Anaheim.

The first time these teams played each other this regular season, on May 3rd, Wacha faced Syndergaard, and the Red Sox won 4-0. The two pitchers are going to face each other again on Monday night.

Noah Syndergaard is facing the same opponent for the second time this regular season. Michael Wacha is doing it for the first time this regular season.

Syndergaard got punched in the mouth against the Texas Rangers the second time he faced them this regular season in which he gave up 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning.

The good news for Syndergaard is that awful game was in Texas.

He came back in his next start and defeated them in Anaheim on May 24th by pitching eight innings and giving up just one run.

Objectively, that was his second best start of the regular season (believe it or not), despite the fact he threw the most innings he has thrown in a game all regular season.

His best start was on April 9th.

Syndergaard had his worst start of the regular season at the New York Yankees on May 31st.

So he gets a chance to be absolutely dominant again against a team he has already faced this regular season, the Boston Red Sox, just like he did against the Texas Rangers on May 24th. And in Anaheim too!

Syndergaard had his third-worst start against the Red Sox earlier this regular season and he was the losing pitcher in that game. So he can only get better at this point.

Wacha’s second-best game of the regular season was against the Los Angeles Angels.

The good news for Wacha and the Red Sox (and the bad news for the Angels) is that Wacha’s last start was his third-worst of the regular season.

Wacha really needs to get back on track as his last three starts have all been his worst three starts of the regular season so far.

I also think Wacha and the Red Sox are hoping the Angels forgot how to beat the Red Sox as the Angels have a current two-game winning streak against them.

And a team like the Los Angeles Angels who have lost 11 straight games now is perhaps what the doctor ordered for Michael Wacha. Maybe.

Perhaps the Red Sox are actually going to have the actual home-field advantage for the first game or two of this four-game series in Anaheim as the Angels had to travel all the way across the country from Philadelphia on Sunday.

The Red Sox only had to travel to Anaheim from Oakland.

This game for Wacha could be what he needs to get back on track and to get focused on perfection against a team that is very hungry for a win at this point.

The average very true on-base plus slugging percentage for Wacha in eight games is .124 while for Syndergaard the average is .156.

So clearly, Wacha consistently pitches better.

Wacha is a better pitcher than Syndergaard this regular season as his opponents’ very true on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) is .126 (out of a perfect score of 1.000). Syndergaard’s is .135.

Opposing batters against Syndergaard have advanced themselves and their teammates 118 bases out of 874 possible bases this regular season.

Based on approximately the same amount of opportunities for the opponents to advance themselves and their teammates, Wacha is barely just a little bit better.

Opposing batters against Wacha have advanced themselves and their teammates 106 bases out of 838 possible bases this regular season (.126).

Meanwhile, opposing batters against Syndergaard have advanced themselves and their teammates 110 bases out of 837 possible bases (.131).

In the first 161 plate appearances this regular season (the number of batters Wacha has faced this regular season), Syndergaard is barely better than Wacha (when you carry it to a fourth decimal place) as opposing batters have advanced themselves and their teammates 104 bases out of 827 possible bases (.1258). Wacha’s percentage is .1265.

When you carry those numbers to only three decimal places, Wacha and Syndergaard are tied at .126.

Syndergaard has faced 170 batters this regular season.

Despite everything that I have said in this story so far that is positive to Syndergaard, Wacha is still better than Syndergaard because I haven’t even included all of the stolen bases Syndergaard has allowed this regular season. (The only thing I have included so far is what the batter has done to advance himself and his teammates. I haven’t included what the baserunners have done without the batter’s effort).

Syndergaard has allowed 13 stolen bases this regular season. So when you add 13 stolen bases onto the 118 bases an opposing batter of Syndergaard has advanced himself and his teammates, that number is 131 (out of 874). Opposing batters and their teammates of Syndergaard have a success rate of .150. That is .24 points worse than Michael Wacha.

When you add the 13 stolen bases to approximately the same amount of possible bases the opponents could advance themselves and their teammates, Syndergaard allowed 123 bases out of 837 possible bases (.147) to the opponent. So that is clearly worse than Wacha’s .126.

Syndergaard is also not better than Wacha in terms of 161 plate appearances either. Syndergaard allowed 117 bases to the opponent out of a possible 827 bases (.141). That is also worse than Wacha’s .126.

I was also going to take away stolen bases from going against Syndergaard if they didn’t appear within the first 838 possible bases that Syndergaard faced this regular season. But there are none (yet) that have appeared since then.

I was also going to take away stolen bases from going against Syndergaard if they appeared after the first 161 plate appearances. But that hasn’t happened yet either.

Michael Wacha has also actually won more and actually lost less than Noah Syndergaard has.

Wacha has 3.407 actual wins and .833 actual losses for a .803 win percentage.

Syndergaard has 2.741 actual wins and 2.456 actual losses for a .527 win percentage.

The Boston Red Sox are 6-2 in Michael Wacha’s starts while the Los Angeles Angels are 4-4 in Noah Syndergaard’s starts this regular season.

Both teams are on a one-game losing streak when their respective starter has pitched this regular season.

The Boston Red Sox have only lost once in the last five Wacha starts while the Los Angeles Angels have lost three times in the last five Syndergaard starts.

Wacha has thrown 40 2/3 innings pitched while Syndergaard has thrown 40 1/3 innings pitched this regular season.

Syndergaard has pitched in 4.620 games this season for the Angels while Wacha has pitched in 4.579 games for the Red Sox.

Syndergaard has hurt the Angels more than Wacha has hurt the Red Sox this regular season.

If Syndergaard would have lost every single game he gave up a run in this regular season, he would have lost 4.122 games for the Angels while Wacha would have lost 3.881 games for the Red Sox.

Wacha has been more successful than Syndergaard in the regular season regardless if their respective teams actually won any one specific game or not.

For Michael Wacha, he has a success rate of getting people out and not letting the other team score of .541 while Noah Syndergaard’s is .528.

Syndergaard has allowed 20 runs, 18 earned runs and 19.25 very true runs this regular season. He has a 4.46 run average, a 4.02 earned run average and a 4.30 very true run average.

Wacha has allowed 12 runs, 11 earned runs and 12 very true runs this regular season. He has a 2.66 run average, a 2.43 earned run average and a 2.66 very true run average.

Syndergaard has not pitched at least five innings twice this regular season while Wacha has not pitched at least five innings three times this regular season.

Both Wacha and Syndergaard have not pitched at least five innings in two of their last three starts.

Michael Wacha has not picked up a win in three straight starts and he also got credited for the loss for the first time this regular season last Tuesday, May 31st.

Wacha’s last win was on May 3rd vs. these Los Angeles Angels.

It seems completely obvious what is going to happen tonight.

(Before I say anything else, you should probably go see who won between Boston and Los Angeles in the first game in Anaheim the last several years.)

The Los Angeles Angels are probably going to win tonight only because they are currently on an 11-game losing streak and I expect Noah Syndergaard to be absolutely dominant against the Boston Red Sox and he absolutely probably wants to kill that first Boston Red Sox batter who steps into that batter’s box tonight (he probably doesn’t actually want to kill or murder him) by throwing a pitch above or at his head like he did on one of the first pitches of Game 3 of the 2015 World Series against Alcides Escobar (which, in hindsight, Syndergaard probably should have been ejected for if we are being completely honest about it).

I should also mention that today (tonight) is June 6th, 2022. From the year 2022, the numbers two, zero, two and two equal six. In other words, today is basically 666.

So maybe the Angels will lose today/tonight.

The Los Angeles Angels need to win a game tonight (or very soon) and Michael Wacha has been a better pitcher than Noah Syndergaard this regular season as I think I have clearly shown in this story.

Quite literally every statistic and fact (or almost every statistic and fact) I have shared in this story says that Michael Wacha is a better pitcher than Noah Syndergaard.

But will he be a better pitcher than Syndergaard tonight?