My California Twitter election predictions: 2020 U.S. House of Representatives
(Photo source: https://publicdomainvectors.org/en/free-clipart/California-symbols/41162.html)
I'll be honest. As I'm writing this, it is Wednesday morning, March 4th, 2020, at 8:44 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
But these California election predictions I did predict before the elections happened yesterday on Super Tuesday.
I just didn't get around to posting my predictions here on my website as I was finalizing my predictions for North Carolina and Alabama and posting those stories here on my website instead.
I made my remaining Congressional District predictions on Monday for California and I will mention which changes I have made since Monday in this story.
To be honest, I really don't know any of the results out of California of what happened yesterday.
The only one I may know from seeing on DeAnna Lorraine's personal Facebook page (I honestly don't know for sure right now) is that she defeated her Republican primary challenger John Dennis in California's 12th Congressional District.
I'm assuming she will be challenging the incumbent Nancy Pelosi for that Congressional seat.
Before I go any farther, I need to state that all of these predictions were based on each candidate's Twitter followers alone and nothing else for all of the candidates.
In fact, some candidates don't even have a Twitter page or I couldn't find their Twitter page, so I obviously didn't pick them to win a Primary Election or even a General Election.
And if a candidate did win a Primary Election and I know nothing about their Twitter following, then I obviously am going to reserve the right to change my General Election prediction for those candidates that fit that criteria.
I also don't think a prediction should be counted against me for the Primary Election if I didn't know about that candidate's Twitter following.
If I get predictions wrong, it is because of Twitter and not anything else.
I reserve the right to change my General Election predictions for unforseen reasons and for legitimate reasons.
A good reason to change a General Election prediction would be if one of the candidates has less than 1,000 Twitter followers and I think they aren't going to win a General Election.
Another great reason to change a prediction is if a candidate gets a big boost in Twitter followers and perhaps surpasses the top competitor in Twitter followers. Otherwise, there are not many other exceptions.
Generally speaking, I think some of these candidates can win a General Election if they right now have between 20% and 40% of the Twitter followers that the top competitor has.
There are no U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in California. If they so choose, Kamala Harris will be up for re-election in 2022 and Dianne Feinstein will be up for it in 2024.
So here are my California U.S. House of Representatives predictions for the 2020 Election cycle.
[Note: The Democrat predicted Primary Election winner is listed first followed by a slash (/) and then the Republican Primary predicted winner is listed. My General Election predicted winner is listed after the semicolon (;) in order of their projected finish (if applicable)].
Who I expect to win in each California Congressional District:
D1: Denney/LaMalfa; LaMalfa
D2: Huffman/Mensing; Huffman
D3: Garamendi/Feucht; Feucht
D4: Kennedy/McClintock; McClintock, Lawton, Kennedy
(Note: Lawton finishing in second place in the General Election is a change from my original prediction. I thought Lawton would finish in third place or worse in the General Election.)
D5: Thompson/Giblin; Thompson
(Change from original prediction: Tyler over Giblin if Thompson loses Democratic primary. I did not list Tyler as having any chance to beat Thompson in the Democratic Party primary.)
D6: Matsui (Emard if Matsui doesn’t win primary)/Bish; Matsui (Emard if Matsui doesn’t win primary)
D7: Bera/Patterson; Patterson
D8: Ellars/Donnelly; Donnelly (Incumbent Republican Paul Cook is not running for re-election.)
D9: McNerney/No official Republican Primary prediction as I didn't have enough information. Antonio “Tony” Amador is my Republican Primary prediction if you are forcing me to pick a Republican (which I did have locked in on Monday). (After looking at Facebook, I think I want to change my pick to Martinek. But my Twitter prediction has to be Amador.); McNerney
D10: Harder/Livengood (I didn't know Howze had a Twitter account and he has more Twitter followers than Livengood. After looking at Facebook, I want to change my Republican Primary prediction to Howze. But my Super Tuesday Twitter prediction is locked in with Livengood.); Harder
Republican primary finish prediction: Howze, Livengood, Elliott
D11: DeSaulnier/Sharma; DeSaulnier (I reserve the right to change my general election pick. Ask me in October 2020.).
D12: Pelosi (Buttar if Pelosi loses primary)/DeAnna Lorraine; Pelosi, Lorraine only if Pelosi loses primary
D13: Lee/Piterman; Lee
D14: Speier/Patel; Speier (Or Patel beats Taylor)
D15: Swalwell (Intal if Swalwell isn’t able to continue his Congressional campaign for being arrested for violating House Ethics rules to basically hold a sham impeachment hearing against President Trump with no clear evidence against President Trump.)/Hayden; Intal
(Alison Hayden was my locked in Super Tuesday Twitter prediction. I actually wouldn't be surprised if Peter Yuan Liu won the Republican Primary as he has more Twitter and Facebook followers than Hayden does. But Hayden has a verified Twitter account and supports President Trump. Liu doesn't have a verified Twitter account and it doesn't appear he supports President Trump with at least yard signs. But Liu still may support President Trump [I don't really know].)
(Note: These are my Twitter predictions. I will probably change this prediction for the General Election.)
All predictions for the rest of this story are based off of the Twitter accounts I could find. So some candidates didn't even get considered.
(Note: This entire story is actually incomplete, so some of these predictions probably will be wrong.)
D16: Costa/Cookingham; Costa
D17: Khanna/Tandon; Khanna
D18: Eshoo/No Prediction for Republican Primary on Super Tuesday. (Phil Reynolds is my Republican Primary prediction after looking at Facebook and Twitter.); Eshoo
D19: Lofgren/Cruz; Lofgren
D20: Panetta/Gorman; Panetta
D21: Cox/Valadao (Roque De La Fuente if Valadao doesn’t win); Valadao (Roque De La Fuente if Valadao or Cox don’t win General Election)
California's District 21 might be the most (or one of the most) corrupt districts for elections in the United States.
TJ Cox maybe didn't even fairly win the 2018 House election vs. David Valadao.
Cox has less Facebook "Likes" and Facebook "Followers" than Valadao did recently.
Cox also has less Facebook "Likes" and Facebook "Followers" combined on his campaign Facebook page and his Congressman Facebook page than Valadao has on either his campaign Facebook page or his Congressman Facebook page.
Valadao also has more Twitter followers on his Congressman Twitter page alone than Cox has on either his campaign Twitter page or his Congressman Twitter page.
Without going into detail, people also need to look at the political history of Roque De La Fuente a.k.a. Rocky De La Fuente (the one running for President of the United States as a Republican in 2020), and his son, Ricardo "Ricky" De La Fuente.
The short version is that Rocky De La Fuente sought to be a U.S. Senator in 9 states in 2018. Nine. Not a joke.
Ricardo, on the other hand, in the year 2020 sought to win the Democrat nomination in California's 21st District. At the same time, he also won yesterday's Primary in Texas' 27th Congressional District. Congratulations Ricardo.
D22: Arballo/Nunes; Nunes
D23: Mangone/McCarthy; McCarthy
D24: Carbajal/Caldwell; Carbajal
D25: Uygur (Christy Smith (Democrat) if Uygur doesn’t win)/Papadopoulos (Garcia if Papadopoulos doesn’t win); Uygur, (Christy Smith if Uygur or Papadopoulos don’t win), Cooper (Independent) if Uygur, Papadopoulos or Christy Smith don't win
D26: Brownley/Kennedy; Brownley
D27: Chu/Nalbandian; Chu
D28: Schiff (Maebe A. Girl wins Democratic Party primary if Schiff goes to jail for violating House Ethics rules by pursuing Trump's Impeachment with no real evidence.)/Early; Schiff (Barbosa will finish in 2nd place ahead of Early
[My exclusive prediction: Early over Barbosa if Schiff does go to jail]
D29: Cardenas (Duenas if Cardenas loses primary)/Perras; Cardenas (Duenas over Perras if Cardenas loses primary)
D30: Sherman (Berina if Sherman doesn’t win)/Reed; Sherman (Berina if Sherman doesn’t win)
D31: Aguilar/Gibboney; Aguilar
(Ask me in October 2020 what I think. Gibboney will win the general election if she gains a lot more Twitter followers and Aguilar doesn’t gain any on his personal Twitter. I will be re-investigating these comments in the future.)
D32: Napolitano (Gonzales if Napolitano doesn’t win)/Scott; Napolitano (Scott if Napolitano doesn’t win)
D33: Lieu/Bradley; Lieu (Wright will finish ahead of Bradley in 2nd place)
D34: Gomez (Kim if Gomez doesn’t win)/Wright; Gomez
(Ask me about this in October 2020, Wright wins if Kim defeats Gomez in Democrat primary.)
D35: Torres/Cargile; Torres
D36: Ruiz/Cruz; Cruz
D37: Bass/Webber; Bass (Webber has more Twitter followers than Bass’s personal Twitter)
D38: Sanchez/No Republican to choose; Sanchez
D39: Cisneros/Kim; Cisneros
(Ask me in October 2020, Cox will probably finish in 3rd place)
D40: Allard/C. Antonio Delgado; Allard
D41: Takano/Smith; Takano (Ask me in October 2020, Smith might win)
D42: Marston/Calvert; Marston
D43: Waters/Navarro; Waters (Ask me in October 2020, Navarro might win)
D44: Barragan/Earley; Barragan
D45: Porter/Furin; Porter
D46: Correa/Waters; Correa
D47: Lowenthal (McLeod 2nd place in Democrat primary)/Phan West; Lowenthal (McLeod will beat Phan West if Lowenthal loses Democrat primary)
D48: Rouda/Steel; Rouda
D49: Levin/Maryott; Levin
D50: Campa-Najjar/Issa (DeMaio if Issa doesn’t win)/Cortes will win other political parties race (not Republican and not Democrat); Issa (Campa-Najjar if Issa loses primary)
D51: Vargas/Hidalgo Jr.; Vargas (ask me in October 2020 but Vargas will probably easily win)
D52: Peters/DeBello; Peters
D53: Jacobs/Oristian; Jacobs
Those are my predictions, exclusively because of Twitter. If I add any further comments to these Congressional races, I think they will have to be addressed in a future story.
