Michael Wacha starting pitcher preview before June 22nd, 2022 game vs. Detroit Tigers

Michael Wacha pitching on Friday, June 17, 2022, vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-red-sox/2022/06/17/663256#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663256)

By: Evan Troxel

The Detroit Tigers (26-42) will face the Boston Red Sox (38-31) tonight at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

Tarik Skubal (5-4, 3.13 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Tigers while Michael Wacha (5-1, 2.28 ERA) is starting for the Red Sox.

Wacha has actually helped the Boston Red Sox actually win a sum total of five games in eight Boston Red Sox victories this regular season.

He will be in sole possession of first place in actual wins (not wins) on the Red Sox by pitching 5 1/3 innings tonight (of a nine inning game).

Wacha needs at least five innings (of a nine inning game) to tie Nick Pivetta for the most actual wins (5.556) on the Boston Red Sox so far this regular season.

He has actually helped the Red Sox lose 1.405 games in three Red Sox losses. Wacha gave up a run(s) in each of those three losses.

Among Boston starting pitchers who have pitched in more than two starts, he has actually lost the least this regular season so far.

Wacha has given up 17 runs (and 15 earned runs) in 45 innings pitched.

He has a 2.28 ERA (3rd on the Boston Red Sox) and a 2.58 true run average and a 2.58 very true run average (both 4th on the Red Sox).

Wacha’s actual win percentage is .781 (third-best on the team and best among starters) and his success rate in getting people out and trying to stop runs from scoring is .589 (tied for fourth with Tyler Danish and first among starters with more than two starts).

Opponents of Michael Wacha have a very true on-base plus slugging percentage this regular season of .123 in which they have advanced themselves and their teammates 150 bases out of 1,215 possible bases.

The Boston Red Sox are 8-3 (W1) in his starts this regular season.

The Red Sox have won or lost every other Wacha start in the last five starts.

If that current pattern continues, the Boston Red Sox will lose tonight.

In every start this regular season, Wacha has pitched 4 1/3 innings.

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MORE NOTES: Very true run average and true run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

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EXPLANATION OF ACTUAL WINS AND LOSSES (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

The above paragraph talks about true runs and not very true runs when a pitcher allows a run(s). Otherwise, everything else can apply to anything that has to do with true runs and very true runs.

NOTE: For the purposes of this story alone, no pitcher is blamed for allowing a baserunner to start any extra inning at second base (but any pitcher who pitches in extra innings will be blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance any additional bases if that baserunner eventually scores). The previous sentence talks about very true runs and not true runs.

EXPLANATION OF A PITCHER'S PERFORMANCE (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

NOTE: To not confuse people, in true runs, extra-inning pitchers do get blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if they score. In true runs, I have always blamed the extra-inning pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if that baserunner eventually scores.

In very true runs, no pitcher gets blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base. But any extra-inning pitcher who allows the baserunner to start at second base who eventually scores will get blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance one or two bases if that baserunner eventually scores.