Nick Pivetta vs. Jeffrey Springs starting pitcher preview; Red Sox win 4-0 on the Fourth of July

Boston Red Sox batter Trevor Story after he connected for his 13th home run of the regular season on July 4th, 2022 vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/rays-vs-red-sox/2022/07/04/663251#game_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663251)

By: Evan Troxel

Trevor Story hit a game-winning home run and Kutter Crawford pitched 5 1/3 innings in relief as the Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-0 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts, on the Fourth of July.

The Rays had just two hits in the game while the Red Sox recorded eleven hits.

Austin Davis for the Red Sox and Jalen Beeks each pitched two innings to start the game and each gave up zero runs, one walk and recorded two strikeouts.

Davis allowed zero hits while Beeks also allowed two singles.

The Rays offense recorded their largest threat of the game in the third inning when they had a baserunner on first and third with two outs.

Yandy Diaz reached on a throwing error by Red Sox pitcher Kutter Crawford and advanced to second base on the play.

Wander Franco then singled on a ground ball to left fielder Alex Verdugo advancing Diaz to third base.

Ji-Man Choi then struck out swinging to end the top of the third.

Trevor Story then hit his game winning home run to right center field with two outs in the bottom of the fourth inning.

Yandy Diaz recorded the final hit of the game for the Rays in the top of the fifth when he hit a single on a pop up to Trevor Story. Story then threw behind Diaz to pitcher Kutter Crawford who was covering first base and then Diaz got tagged out because he went too far off the first base bag toward second base.

In the bottom of the fifth, Christian Arroyo doubled to left field and he advanced to third on a Bobby Dalbec groundout to the catcher.

Arroyo then scored on a ground ball hit by Rafael Devers to second baseman Issac Paredes.

Devers then got caught stealing by catcher Francisco Mejia who was tagged out by Paredes.

Kutter Crawford then struck out Brett Phillips in the top of the eighth with one out, but Phillips reached base on the wild pitch and uncaught third strike by Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez.

That would be the final batter of the game for Crawford and John Schreiber came into the game and got Yandy Diaz to ground out to first baseman Bobby Dalbec.

Wander Franco then grounded out to second baseman Trevor Story to end the top half of the eighth inning.

Heading into the bottom of the eighth, the Red Sox still had just a 2-0 lead.

The Red Sox got the first four batters to reach base, with three straight singles to start the bottom half of the inning in which Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Christian Vazquez each got a hit.

With the bases loaded, Alex Verdugo then hit a ground ball back to the pitcher Josh Fleming, but it went under Fleming’s glove, Devers scored, and the Red Sox had a 3-0 advantage.

The error on Fleming would prove extremely costly, as he pitched five innings and was subsequently removed from the game.

If Fleming would have got Devers out at home plate, Boston only would have had a 2-0 lead with one out.

And it could have been a 2-0 Red Sox lead with two outs as Calvin Faucher then struck out Trevor Story looking.

Franchy Cordero then singled on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe, scoring J.D. Martinez from third base.

Boston at this point had a 4-0 lead.

Christian Arroyo then hit into a 4-6-3 double play to end the eighth inning.

Faucher pitched one inning for Tampa Bay.

John Schreiber then got the next three batters out in the ninth inning as he earned his third save of the season and Kutter Crawford (now 2-2) recorded just his second win of the regular season.

Schreiber pitched 1 2/3 innings for Boston.

Josh Fleming took the loss for the Rays (now 2-4) and earned four strikeouts (the second most among pitchers for either team in the game).

Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco and Issac Paredes (who had the only two walks of the game for the Rays) were the offensive MVP’s of the game for Tampa Bay.

Trevor Story was clearly the offensive MVP of the game for the Red Sox while Christian Arroyo deserved the second-place offensive MVP of the game for Boston.

Alex Verdugo and Franchy Cordero were also major offensive contributors for the Red Sox on Monday.

Tampa Bay is now 43-37 while Boston is now 45-35 in the regular season.

On Tuesday night, Nick Pivetta (8-5, 3.23 ERA) takes the mound for Boston while Jeffrey Springs (3-2, 2.25 ERA) will pitch for Tampa Bay. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Eastern Time.

Pivetta has a 3.02 very true run average and a 3.02 true run average while Springs has a 2.25 very true run average and a 2.25 true run average.

Pivetta has actually helped the Red Sox win a sum total of 6.933 games and lose a sum total of 3.425 games (based on very true runs) for a winning percentage of .669.

Based on runs he has actually lost 3.800 games for a winning percentage of .646 and based on earned runs he has actually lost 3.867 games for a winning percentage of .642.

In 94 2/3 innings pitched, Pivetta has given up 31.750 very true runs, 34 runs and 34 earned runs.

Regardless of the win or loss result for any one specific game, he has a success rate of getting people out and not letting the opponent score of .523 (runs), .516 (earned runs) and .533 (very true runs).

If Pivetta won every game he has pitched in, he would have a sum total of 10.588 wins and he would have a sum total of 9.241 losses if the Red Sox would have actually lost every game Pivetta gave up a run(s) in.

Based on runs, he would have 9.617 losses if the Red Sox would have actually lost every game Pivetta gave up a run(s) in and he would have 9.894 if the Red Sox would have actually lost every game Pivtta gave up a run(s) in.

Springs has actually helped the Rays win a sum total of 4.988 games and lose a sum total of 1.439 games (based on very true runs) for a winning percentage of .776.

Based on runs and earned runs, he has actually lost 1.273 games for a winning percentage of .797.

In 60 innings pitched, Springs has given up 15 very true runs, 15 runs and 15 earned runs.

Regardless of the win or loss result for any one specific game, he has a success rate of getting people out and not letting the opponent score of .583 (runs and earned runs) and .581 (very true runs).

If Springs won every game he has pitched in, he would have a sum total of 6.437 wins and he would have a sum total of 4.648 losses if the Rays would have actually lost every game Springs gave up a run(s) in.

Based on runs and earned runs, he would have 4.606 losses if the Rays would have actually lost every game Springs gave up a run(s) in.

...

All statistics in this story are to be interpreted after the Monday, July 4th, 2022 game and before the Tuesday, July 5th, 2022 game.

NOTE #1: Very true run average and true run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

...

EXPLANATION OF ACTUAL WINS AND LOSSES (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

The above paragraph talks about true runs and not very true runs when a pitcher allows a run(s). Otherwise, everything else can apply to anything that has to do with true runs and very true runs.

WON-LOST RECORDS (TRUE RUNS)

Matt Barnes .556 wins and 2.433 losses (.187 win pct.), 8.47 true run average, 9.53 run average, 7.94 earned run average

Ryan Brasier 1.359 wins and 2.615 losses (.342 win pct.), 5.56 true run average, 4.45 run average, 4.15 earned run average

Kutter Crawford 1.630 wins and 1.357 losses (.546 win pct.), 5.04 true run average, 5.40 run average, 5.04 earned run average

Tyler Danish 1.444 wins and 1.302 losses (.526 win pct.), 4.45 true run average, 4.61 run average, 4.28 earned run average

Austin Davis 1.059 wins and .330 losses (.763 win pct.), 1.94 true run average, 2.30 run average, 2.30 earned run average

Jake Diekman 2.160 wins and 1.717 losses (.557 win pct.), 4.45 true run average, 3.81 run average, 2.86 earned run average

Nathan Eovaldi 3.963 wins and 2.876 losses (.579 win pct.), 3.69 true run average, 3.69 run average, 3.16 earned run average

Rich Hill 4.185 wins and 3.296 losses (.559 win pct.), 4.49 true run average, 4.59 run average, 4.20 earned run average

Tanner Houck 3.365 wins and 2.924 losses (.535 win pct.), 3.28 true run average, 3.65 run average, 3.47 earned run average

Nick Pivetta 6.933 wins and 3.394 losses (.671 win pct.), 3.02 true run average, 3.23 run average, 3.23 earned run average

Kevin Plawecki .000 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.), 0.00 true run average, 0.00 run average, 0.00 earned run average

Hansel Robles 1.389 wins and 2.563 losses (.351 win pct.), 6.46 true run average, 6.85 run average, 5.70 earned run average

Hirokazu Sawamura 1.315 wins and 2.466 losses (.348 win pct.), 5.52 true run average, 3.07 run average, 2.45 earned run average

John Schreiber 2.376 wins and .167 losses (.934 win pct.), 0.99 true run average, 0.99 run average, 0.66 earned run average

Connor Seabold .364 wins and 1.000 losses (.267 win pct.), 8.31 true run average, 8.31 run average, 8.31 earned run average

Matt Strahm 2.021 wins and .461 losses (.814 win pct.), 4.47 true run average, 5.11 run average, 4.01 earned run average

Phillips Valdez .222 wins and .828 losses (.212 win pct.), 4.89 true run average, 5.40 run average, 5.40 earned run average

Michael Wacha 5.667 wins and 2.071 losses (.732 win pct.), 2.94 true run average, 2.94 run average, 2.69 earned run average

Garrett Whitlock 3.104 wins and 1.533 losses (.669 win pct.), 3.79 true run average, 3.88 run average, 3.51 earned run average

Josh Winckowski 1.889 wins and 1.667 losses (.531 win pct.), 3.46 true run average, 3.46 run average, 3.12 earned run average

NOTE #2: No pitcher is blamed for allowing a baserunner to start any extra inning at second base (but any pitcher who pitches in extra innings will be blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance any additional bases if that baserunner eventually scores). The previous sentence talks about very true runs and not true runs.

WON-LOST RECORDS (VERY TRUE RUNS)

Matt Barnes .556 wins and 2.416 losses (.187 win pct.), 7.68 very true run average, 9.53 run average, 7.94 earned run average

Ryan Brasier 1.359 wins and 2.624 losses (.341 win pct.), 5.56 very true run average, 4.45 run average, 4.15 earned run average

Kutter Crawford 1.630 wins and 1.290 losses (.558 win pct.), 4.86 very true run average, 5.40 run average, 5.04 earned run average

Tyler Danish 1.444 wins and 1.302 losses (.526 win pct.), 4.45 very true run average, 4.61 run average, 4.28 earned run average

Austin Davis 1.059 wins and .335 losses (.760 win pct.), 1.94 very true run average, 2.30 run average, 2.30 earned run average

Jake Diekman 2.160 wins and 1.690 losses (.561 win pct.), 4.13 very true run average, 3.81 run average, 2.86 earned run average

Nathan Eovaldi 3.963 wins and 2.976 losses (.571 win pct.), 3.69 very true run average, 3.69 run average, 3.16 earned run average

Rich Hill 4.185 wins and 3.296 losses (.559 win pct.), 4.49 very true run average, 4.59 run average, 4.20 earned run average

Tanner Houck 3.365 wins and 2.924 losses (.535 win pct.), 3.28 very true run average, 3.65 run average, 3.47 earned run average

Nick Pivetta 6.933 wins and 3.425 losses (.669 win pct.), 3.02 very true run average, 3.23 run average, 3.23 earned run average

Kevin Plawecki .000 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.), 0.00 very true run average, 0.00 run average, 0.00 earned run average

Hansel Robles 1.389 wins and 2.632 losses (.345 win pct.), 6.46 very true run average, 6.85 run average, 5.70 earned run average

Hirokazu Sawamura 1.315 wins and 2.317 losses (.362 win pct, 5.37 very true run average, 3.07 run average, 2.45 earned run average

John Schreiber 2.376 wins and .167 losses (.934 win pct.), 0.99 very true run average, 0.99 run average, 0.66 earned run average

Connor Seabold .364 wins and 1.000 losses (.267 win pct.), 8.31 very true run average, 8.31 run average, 8.31 earned run average

Matt Strahm 2.021 wins and .465 losses (.813 win pct.), 4.47 very true run average, 5.11 run average, 4.01 earned run average

Phillips Valdez .222 wins and .828 losses (.212 win pct.), 4.89 very true run average, 5.40 run average, 5.40 earned run average

Michael Wacha 5.667 wins and 2.071 losses (.732 win pct.), 2.94 very true run average, 2.94 run average, 2.69 earned run average

Garrett Whitlock 3.104 wins and 1.577 losses (.663 win pct.), 3.79 very true run average, 3.88 run average, 3.51 earned run average

Josh Winckowski 1.889 wins and 1.667 losses (.531 win pct.), 3.46 very true run average, 3.46 run average, 3.12 earned run average

EXPLANATION OF A PITCHER'S PERFORMANCE (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

NOTE #3: To not confuse people, in true runs, extra-inning pitchers do get blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if they score. In true runs, I have always blamed the extra-inning pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if that baserunner eventually scores.

WON-LOST RECORDS (TRUE RUNS, not dependent on whether the Red Sox win any one specific game or not)

Matt Barnes 1.902 wins and 3.017 losses (.387 win pct.) 17 innings pitched

Ryan Brasier 3.415 wins and 4.982 losses (.407 win pct.) 30 1/3 innings pitched

Kutter Crawford 2.755 wins and 1.678 losses (.621 win pct.) 25 innings pitched

Tyler Danish 3.090 wins and 2.177 losses (.587 win pct.) 27 1/3 innings pitched

Austin Davis 3.516 wins and 1.016 losses (.776 win pct.) 31 1/3 innings pitched

Jake Diekman 3.093 wins and 3.440 losses (.473 win pct.) 28 1/3 innings pitched

Nathan Eovaldi 7.616 wins and 5.661 losses (.574 win pct.) 68 1/3 innings pitched

Rich Hill 8.042 wins and 8.213 losses (.495 win pct.) 70 2/3 innings pitched

Tanner Houck 5.559 wins and 4.241 losses (.567 win pct.) 49 1/3 innings pitched

Nick Pivetta 10.558 wins and 9.211 losses (.534 win pct.) 94 2/3 innings pitched

Kevin Plawecki .125 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.) 1 inning pitched

Hansel Robles 2.622 wins and 4.396 losses (.374 win pct.) 23 2/3 innings pitched

Hirokazu Sawamura 3.272 wins and 2.627 losses (.555 win pct.) 29 1/3 innings pitched

John Schreiber 3.037 wins and 0.500 losses (.859 win pct.) 27 1/3 innings pitched

Connor Seabold .364 wins and 1.500 losses (.195 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Matt Strahm 2.687 wins and 3.445 losses (.438 win pct.) 24 2/3 innings pitched

Phillips Valdez 1.537 wins and 1.328 losses (.537 win pct.) 13 1/3 innings pitched

Michael Wacha 7.963 wins and 6.319 losses (.558 win pct.) 70 1/3 innings pitched

Garrett Whitlock 5.292 wins and 5.583 losses (.487 win pct.) 48 2/3 innings pitched

Josh Winckowski 2.972 wins and 3.667 losses (.448 win pct.) 26 innings pitched

In very true runs, no pitcher gets blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base. But any extra-inning pitcher who allows the baserunner to start at second base who eventually scores will get blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance one or two bases if that baserunner eventually scores.

WON-LOST RECORDS (VERY TRUE RUNS, not dependent on whether the Red Sox win any one specific game or not)

Matt Barnes 1.902 wins and 2.999 losses (.388 win pct.) 17 innings pitched

Ryan Brasier 3.415 wins and 4.990 losses (.406 win pct.) 30 1/3 innings pitched

Kutter Crawford 2.755 wins and 1.611 losses (.631 win pct.) 25 innings pitched

Tyler Danish 3.090 wins and 2.177 losses (.587 win pct.) 27 1/3 innings pitched

Austin Davis 3.516 wins and 1.021 losses (.775 win pct.) 31 1/3 innings pitched

Jake Diekman 3.093 wins and 3.306 losses (.483 win pct.) 28 1/3 innings pitched

Nathan Eovaldi 7.616 wins and 5.833 losses (.566 win pct.) 68 1/3 innings pitched

Rich Hill 8.042 wins and 8.213 losses (.495 win pct.) 70 2/3 innings pitched

Tanner Houck 5.559 wins and 4.241 losses (.567 win pct.) 49 1/3 innings pitched

Nick Pivetta 10.558 wins and 9.241 losses (.533 win pct.) 94 2/3 innings pitched

Kevin Plawecki .125 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.) 1 inning pitched

Hansel Robles 2.622 wins and 4.501 losses (.368 win pct.) 23 2/3 innings pitched

Hirokazu Sawamura 3.272 wins and 2.477 losses (.569 win pct.) 29 1/3 innings pitched

John Schreiber 3.037 wins and 0.500 losses (.859 win pct.) 27 1/3 innings pitched

Connor Seabold .364 wins and 1.500 losses (.195 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Matt Strahm 2.687 wins and 3.448 losses (.438 win pct.) 24 2/3 innings pitched

Phillips Valdez 1.537 wins and 1.328 losses (.537 win pct.) 13 1/3 innings pitched

Michael Wacha 7.963 wins and 6.319 losses (.558 win pct.) 70 1/3 innings pitched

Garrett Whitlock 5.292 wins and 5.627 losses (.485 win pct.) 48 2/3 innings pitched

Josh Winckowski 2.972 wins and 3.667 losses (.448 win pct.) 26 innings pitched