Tanner Houck April 21st 2022 Preview vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Tanner Houck (Photo from MLB.com Video; https://www.mlb.com/gameday/twins-vs-red-sox/2022/04/16/663238#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663238)

Boston Red Sox pitcher Tanner Houck's second start of the regular season was clearly better than his first based on all of the basic baseball pitching statistics out there.

And if it wasn't better, it was tied for the worst...in the regular season.

That doesn't mean a lot (or much at all) when Houck will be the starting pitcher (or pitching at all) in just his third game of the regular season on Thursday (today).

Last time Houck started, on Saturday, April 16th, he pitched 5 2/3 innings pitched, gave up zero runs and got credit for the win vs. the Minnesota Twins. He gave up just two hits, had three walks (tied for his previous start on April 10th), and struck out four.

Clearly that outing is what the doctor ordered as the Red Sox won 4-0 against the Twins on Saturday and after Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta gave up four runs in just two innings pitched in which the Red Sox lost 8-4 on Opening Day at Fenway Park in Boston the day before.

Tanner is actually better than his 3.00 ERA says. His true run average or very true run average is 1.75. That means, relief pitcher(s) allowed the inherited runners to score. In this case, Ryan Brasier allowed 1.25 runs to score at the New York Yankees on April 10th.

During the regular season, before today's game against the Toronto Blue Jays, Houck is the eighth best pitcher on this Red Sox team right now based on his performance (and he is only the second best starting pitcher behind Michael Wacha).

Houck is also just one of three Red Sox pitchers who haven't been a part of a Red Sox loss yet during the regular season (the other two are Hansel Robles and Matt Strahm). He also is one of five Boston pitchers who cannot be blamed yet for a Red Sox loss in the regular season (Tyler Danish and Phillips Valdez are the other two, along with Robles and Strahm).

Tanner's most accurate won-lost record is 1 win and 0.583 losses (.632 winning percentage) during the regular season in 9 innings pitched.

If you want to blame Tanner Houck 100% for all three runs given up against the Yankees on April 10th (which I don't think you should), his won-lost record is 1 win and 1 loss (.500 winning percentage) so far this regular season.

Houck's last Spring Training start was actually better than his first two starts in the regular season in terms of throwing pitches for strikes versus total pitches thrown.

His last Spring Training start on April 4th resulted in 55 strikes in 82 pitches (.671). On April 10th, that was 45 strikes in 78 pitches (.577) and on April 16th that was 50 strikes in 89 pitches (.562).

I fully expect Tanner to have a similar outing today against the Toronto Blue Jays as he had on April 16th and for him to pitch probably at least 5 innings (or slightly less than that) and give up two or three runs.