Adam Wainwright vs. Michael Wacha starting pitcher preview. Cardinals vs. Red Sox at 7:10 Eastern.
Adam Wainwright at the Chicago Cubs on June 5th, 2022. (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-cubs/2022/06/05/663138#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663138)
Michael Wacha at the Los Angeles Angels on June 6th, 2022. (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-angels/2022/06/06/663399#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663399)
By: Evan Troxel
St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (5-4, 2.84 ERA) will be facing Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.33 ERA) tonight at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.
First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. Eastern Time.
Both pitchers were on the Cardinals from 2013 through 2019.
Michael Wacha is a better pitcher this regular season so far than Adam Wainwright.
Opponents this regular season have a very true on-base plus slugging percentage against Wacha of .125 (with a perfect score of 1.000) advancing themselves and their teammates 138 bases out of 1,105 possible bases.
Against Wainwright, opponents this regular season have a very true on-base plus slugging percentage of .128 advancing themselves and their teammates 202 bases out of 1,584 possible bases.
Through the first 1,105 possible bases this regular season, Wainwright allowed the opponent and their teammates to advance a total of 145 bases for a very true on-base plus slugging percentage of .131.
So Wainwright is still worse than Wacha.
The opponent has also advanced 151 bases out of 1,134 possible bases against Wainwright in the first 213 plate appearances this regular season (the number of batters faced Michael Wacha has faced this regular season) for a very true on-base plus slugging percentage of .133.
Again, Wacha is better than Wainwright.
Wainwright has a success rate of .557 in getting people out and not allowing the opponent to score runs while Wacha’s success rate is .577.
Actually winning games has come much easier for Wainwright, but actually losing games has been much less hard on Wacha.
Wainwright has 5.633 actual wins and 3.300 actual losses this regular season for a .631 win percentage.
Wacha has 4.407 actual wins and 1.405 actual losses this regular season for a .758 win percentage.
Wainwright is ranked seventh on the Cardinals in ERA while Wacha is ranked fourth on the Red Sox in ERA.
Wacha has a 2.67 true run average and 2.67 very true run average this regular season while Wainwright has a 2.96 true run average and 2.96 very true run average.
Wainwright has pitched in 73 innings (2nd on the team) this regular season allowing 24 runs and 23 earned runs (both 4th on the team).
He has pitched 52 2/3 innings in St. Louis wins (that leads the team) and 20 1/3 innings when the Cardinals lose (that is 3rd on the team).
Wainwright has allowed 9 runs (9 earned) when the Cardinals win (both are 2nd on the team) and 15 runs (14 earned) when St. Louis loses (both are 4th on the team).
Wacha has pitched 54 innings this regular season (which is 4th on the team) allowing 16 runs (tied for sixth on the team with Tanner Houck) and 14 earned runs (seventh on the team).
He has pitched 39 2/3 innings in Boston victories (that is 2nd on the team) and 14 1/3 innings when the Red Sox lose (that is 8th on the team).
Wacha has allowed 10 runs when the Red Sox win (both are 3rd on the team) and he has allowed just six runs (that is tied for 13th with Matt Strahm and Garrett Whitlock on the Red Sox) and 4 earned runs (that is tied for 14th with Hansel Robles and Josh Winckowski) when Boston loses.
So Wainwright has allowed fewer runs when St. Louis wins than Wacha has when Boston wins. Wacha however has allowed fewer runs when the Red Sox lose than Wainwright has when the Cardinals lose.
Opponents are doing the following against Wainwright: .245 batting average/.304 on-base percentage/.363 slugging percentage/.667 on-base plus slugging percentage
Against Wacha, opponents are doing the following against him: .195 batting average/.258 on-base percentage/.313 slugging percentage/.571 on-base plus slugging percentage
Opponents against Wainwright per plate appearance also average advancing themselves and their teammates 1.924 bases and the average possible bases they can advance themselves and their teammates are 5.298 bases for a success rate of .363.
Against Wacha, opponents per plate appearance average advancing themselves and their teammates 2.060 bases and the average possible bases they can advance themselves and their teammates are 5.188 bases for a success rate of .397.
The Cardinals are 8-4 (W3) this regular season when Wainwright starts while the Red Sox are 7-3 (L1) when Wacha starts.
Boston won six of Wacha’s first seven starts of the regular season while St. Louis has won six of Wainwright’s last seven starts in the regular season.
Wacha needs to pitch 3 1/3 innings of a nine-inning game to tie Nick Pivetta for the most actual wins (4.778) on the Boston Red Sox this regular season.
So Wacha will be in sole possession of first place in actual wins among Boston Red Sox pitchers this regular season by pitching 3 2/3 innings (or more tonight) if the Red Sox actually win tonight's game.
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MORE NOTES: Very true run average and true run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).
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EXPLANATION OF ACTUAL WINS AND LOSSES (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):
Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game
The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.
The above paragraph talks about true runs and not very true runs when a pitcher allows a run(s). Otherwise, everything else can apply to anything that has to do with true runs and very true runs.
NOTE: For the purposes of this story alone, no pitcher is blamed for allowing a baserunner to start any extra inning at second base (but any pitcher who pitches in extra innings will be blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance any additional bases if that baserunner eventually scores). The previous sentence talks about very true runs and not true runs.
EXPLANATION OF A PITCHER'S PERFORMANCE (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):
Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.
In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.
Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.
The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.
Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.
The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.
NOTE: To not confuse people, in true runs, extra-inning pitchers do get blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if they score. In true runs, I have always blamed the extra-inning pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if that baserunner eventually scores.
In very true runs, no pitcher gets blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base. But any extra-inning pitcher who allows the baserunner to start at second base who eventually scores will get blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance one or two bases if that baserunner eventually scores.
