Josh Winckowski vs. Alex Faedo starting pitcher preview on June 20th

Josh Winckowski pitching vs. the Oakland Athletics on June 15th, 2022. (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/athletics-vs-red-sox/2022/06/15/663235#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663235)

By: Evan Troxel

Josh Winckowski (1-1, 4.50 ERA) will be making just his third career start for the Boston Red Sox tonight (Monday).

Winckowski’s counterpart tonight will be the Detroit Tigers Alex Faedo (1-3, 4.28 ERA) who has pitched 40 innings in eight career Major League starts (all this regular season).

Faedo (2-1, 1.72 ERA in the Minor Leagues) has pitched 15 2/3 innings in four games this regular season.

Overall between the Minor and Major Leagues in 2022, Faedo is 3-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 55 2/3 innings pitched (22 runs allowed) in 12 games (10 starts) this regular season.

Winckowski has given up just four runs in eight innings pitched and he has given up zero runs in five innings pitched in Red Sox wins so far this regular season.

He made his Major League debut in the second game of a doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, May 28th, and he also pitched vs. the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday, June 15th.

He has actually helped the Red Sox actually lose more so far this regular season than actually win.

Winckowski has .556 actual wins and 1.000 actual losses for a winning percentage of .357 with the Boston Red Sox.

The good news for Boston is that the teams he has played for are currently on a three-game winning streak.

The Worcester Red Sox won their last two games when he pitched and the Boston Red Sox won on June 15th.

The bad news is that until his recent winning three-game winning streak, the team Winckowski pitched for always lost his next start after a win in which he started.

So if that holds true, the Boston Red Sox will lose tonight (as long as Winckowski actually ends up pitching).

With a win on Monday, the teams Winckowski plays for will be on the longest winning or losing streak of the regular season.

Winckowski lost his last three starts in May, two with Worcester and his Major League debut on May 28th.

At Worcester, Winckowski is 2-2 in nine starts and has a 3.38 ERA in 42 2/3 innings pitched.

He has actually helped them win 2.519 wins (out of four Worcester wins) and he has actually lost 2.152 games (out of five Worcester losses), so his winning percentage is .539.

Combining both Worcester and Boston, Winckowski has actually helped the Red Sox win 3.074 games (out of four Worcester wins and one Boston win, so five wins total) and he has actually helped them lose 3.152 games (out of five Worcester losses and one Boston loss, so six losses total) for an winning percentage of .494.

Regardless of the win or loss result of any one specific game this regular season, with Boston Winckowski has got outs to try to help them win a sum total of .889 games and he has given up runs to help them lose a sum total of 1.000 games for a success rate or performance percentage of .471.

Among Boston pitchers, that success rate would be ranked 15th on the team.

With Worcester, he has got outs to try to help them win 5.399 games and he has given up runs to help them lose 3.152 games this regular season, regardless of the win or loss result for any one specific game, for a success rate or performance percentage of .631.

If that performance percentage applied to the Boston Red Sox and not to Worcester, Winckowski would be ranked as the fourth-best pitcher on the team right now.

Combining both Worcester and Boston, he has got outs in a sum total of 6.288 games (out of 11 total games) and given up a run(s) in a sum total of 4.152 games (out of nine games he has given up a run or a partial run in) for a success rate or performance percentage of .602.

If that success rate was applied to the Boston Red Sox, Winckowski would be the fourth-best pitcher on the team right now (assuming that minor league batters are as aggressive at the plate as established major league batters).

At Boston, Winckowski’s 4.50 run average and earned run average are the same as his 4.50 very true run average and very true “earned” run average.

At Worcester, his 4.22 very true run average and his 3.32 very true “earned” run average are better than his 4.43 run average and his 3.38 ERA.

Combined with Worcester and Boston, Winckowski’s 4.26 very true run average and 3.51 very true “earned” run average are better than his 4.44 run average and 3.55 ERA this regular season.

So in other words, Winckowski is a little bit better pitcher than his current run average and ERA says he is.

At Fenway Park this regular season, Winckowski has allowed opponents and their teammates to have a very true on-base plus slugging percentage of .146 (with a perfect score of 1.000) in advancing themselves and their teammates 31 bases out of 213 possible bases.

With Worcester this regular season, Winckowski has allowed opponents and their teammates to have a very true on-base plus slugging percentage of .142 (with a perfect score of 1.000) in advancing themselves and their teammates 116 bases out of 819 possible bases.

So combined between Boston and Worcester, Winckowski has allowed opponents and their teammates to have a very true on-base plus slugging percentage of .142 (with a perfect score of 1.000) in advancing themselves and their teammates 147 bases out of 1,032 possible bases.

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MORE NOTES: Very true run average and true run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

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EXPLANATION OF ACTUAL WINS AND LOSSES (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

The above paragraph talks about true runs and not very true runs when a pitcher allows a run(s). Otherwise, everything else can apply to anything that has to do with true runs and very true runs.

NOTE: For the purposes of this story alone, no pitcher is blamed for allowing a baserunner to start any extra inning at second base (but any pitcher who pitches in extra innings will be blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance any additional bases if that baserunner eventually scores). The previous sentence talks about very true runs and not true runs.

EXPLANATION OF A PITCHER'S PERFORMANCE (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

NOTE: To not confuse people, in true runs, extra-inning pitchers do get blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if they score. In true runs, I have always blamed the extra-inning pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if that baserunner eventually scores.

In very true runs, no pitcher gets blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base. But any extra-inning pitcher who allows the baserunner to start at second base who eventually scores will get blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance one or two bases if that baserunner eventually scores.