Michael Wacha retakes the actual wins lead again while Austin Davis' ERA drops one full point

Boston Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez securing the final out with Paul Goldschmidt batting for the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday night, June 17th, 2022. (Photo from MLB.com Video: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-red-sox/2022/06/17/663256#game_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=663256)

By: Evan Troxel

The Boston Red Sox defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-5 on Friday night as Tanner Houck picked up his third save of the regular season.

Heading into the top of the ninth, the Red Sox clearly had things under control as they were leading 6-1.

But a four-run outburst by the Cardinals in the final inning forced Red Sox manager Alex Cora to go back to his bullpen again to get the final out.

Thankfully for Red Sox fans, Houck found a way to get Paul Goldschmidt to strike out looking to end the game as Houck was almost a total disaster otherwise.

Boston was ahead 6-2 with runners on first base and third base when Houck came into the game.

Officially in the box score, Houck gave up one run while Austin Davis (who got the first two outs of the ninth inning for Boston) was charged with three runs, but Davis and Houck each really should be charged with two runs allowed each.

As a result of Friday night's game, Houck moved from 9th to 12th in ERA among Red Sox pitchers. Before Friday's game, his ERA was 3.38 and now it is 3.56.

Houck was also ranked fifth with a 2.95 true run average and a 2.95 very true run average before Friday's game, and now he is ranked sixth for Boston with a 3.35 true run average and a 3.35 very true run average.

In other words, Houck had a very bad game on Friday night and a worse game than Austin Davis did (because he pitched 1/3 of an inning less than Davis), Houck is one of the best pitchers on this Boston team and he is a better pitcher than his previous ERA (before Friday's game) and current ERA says.

Houck is the seventh-best pitcher on this team right now (regardless of the win or loss result for any one specific game), but maybe he should be labeled as the second-best pitcher on the Red Sox as only Michael Wacha has thrown more innings than him among the top seven pitchers for Boston.

Meanwhile, Davis moved from 3rd to 4th in ERA. His ERA was 1.46 before Friday's game and now it is 2.49. So his ERA dropped 1.03 points.

Davis was also ranked second with a 1.37 true run average and a 1.37 very true run average before Friday's game, but now he is ranked third for Boston with a 2.04 true run average and a 2.04 very true run average.

In other words, Davis had a very bad game on Friday night, he is one of the best pitchers on this Red Sox team and he is a better pitcher than his previous ERA (before Friday's game) and current ERA says.

(Houck's true run average and very true run average won't look as bad as Davis' because Houck has thrown more innings this regular season than Davis has. )

Davis is the third-best pitcher on this team (and the second-best if we are not counting Boston catcher Kevin Plawecki as a pitcher).

Michael Wacha, John Schreiber and Matt Strahm each probably were the Red Sox pitchers who actually deserved the save for Boston as the fact that each pitcher got one additional out ultimately ended up being very important.

Wacha pitched 5 1/3 innings giving up just one run, while Schreiber and Strahm each pitched 1 1/3 innings and gave up zero runs.

As a result of Friday night's game, Wacha moved from 4th to 3rd on the Red Sox in ERA. He now has a 2.28 ERA and he had a 2.33 ERA before Friday's game.

Wacha is ranked fourth on the Red Sox with a 2.58 true run average and very true run average (and he was ranked fourth before Friday's game with a 2.67 true run average and very true run average).

So in other words, Wacha is a worse pitcher than his previous ERA (before Friday's game) and current ERA says.

The win for Wacha gives him a sum total of five actual wins in eight Boston victories when he starts this regular season.

Wacha leads the team in actual wins and he will likely be overtaken by Nick Pivetta again when Pivetta starts again in the future and the Boston Red Sox actually win the game.

Pivetta only needs to pitch two innings to tie Wacha for most actual wins and 2 1/3 innings to be in sole possession of first place in actual wins on the Boston Red Sox.

No other Red Sox starting pitcher other than Pivetta can tie or overtake Wacha in actual wins until at least after Wacha's next start.

Wacha has pitched well enough that he probably should make the American League All-Star team this season and he is the fifth-best pitcher for Boston right now regardless of the win or loss result for any one specific game.

He is also the best starting pitcher for the Red Sox with a minimum of two starts this regular season.

John Schreiber moved from third to second in true run average and very true run average after Friday's game.

Before Friday's game, Schreiber had a 1.47 true run average and very true run average and now he has a 1.37 true run average and very true run average.

He also had a 0.98 ERA before Friday's game and now his ERA is 0.92 and both were ranked second on the team.

So in other words, Schreiber is a worse pitcher than his previous ERA (before Friday's game) and current ERA says.

Schreiber is the 2nd-best pitcher on the Red Sox and he is the best pitcher for Boston among pitchers who have pitched in at least two games.

Boston catcher Kevin Plawecki is the best pitcher for the Red Sox as he has only appeared in one game.

Matt Strahm had a 4.00 ERA before Friday's game and now he has a 3.72 ERA. Both were/are ranked 13th for Boston.

He also had a 4.13 true run average and very true run average before Friday's game and now he has a 3.84 true run average and very true run average. Both stats were/are ranked 10th on the Red Sox.

Strahm is currently the sixth-worst pitcher on the Boston Red Sox.

Kutter Crawford (1-1, 5.74 ERA) will pitch for the Red Sox on Saturday night as he has a 5.74 true run average and a 5.46 very true run average.

He is ranked as 18th in ERA and 16th in true run average and very true run average.

Crawford has allowed 11 runs (10 earned runs) in 15 2/3 innings this regular season.

Right now he is ranked as the sixth-best pitcher on this Red Sox team regardless of the win or loss result for any one specific game.

Crawford has helped Boston actually win 1.037 games and actually lose 0.926 games this regular season for a .528 win percentage.

Boston is 1-0 when he has started and they are 4-5 when he has pitched in a game this regular season.

Crawford will be making just his second appearance in a game today (and this week) since after the May 13th game at the Texas Rangers.

On Sunday, June 12th, he pitched 5 innings giving up 0 runs (0 earned runs), allowing 1 hit, 4 walks and 7 strikeouts to collect his first career Major League victory.

Crawford has pitched in 9 games this regular season and 10 games in his career.

Today's game will be just his second start of the regular season and the third start of his Major League career.

Dakota Hudson (4-3, 3.29 ERA) will be pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals.

He has went 7 innings in his last three games and before that he had three of four starts in which he only pitched 4 2/3 innings.

Hudson has pitched in 81 games in his career and has 12 starts this regular season.

He has given up 25 runs (24 earned runs) in 65 2/3 innings pitched this regular season.

...

MORE NOTES: Very true run average and true run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

...

EXPLANATION OF ACTUAL WINS AND LOSSES (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

The above paragraph talks about true runs and not very true runs when a pitcher allows a run(s). Otherwise, everything else can apply to anything that has to do with true runs and very true runs.

NOTE: For the purposes of this story alone, no pitcher is blamed for allowing a baserunner to start any extra inning at second base (but any pitcher who pitches in extra innings will be blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance any additional bases if that baserunner eventually scores). The previous sentence talks about very true runs and not true runs.

EXPLANATION OF A PITCHER'S PERFORMANCE (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

NOTE: To not confuse people, in true runs, extra-inning pitchers do get blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if they score. In true runs, I have always blamed the extra-inning pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if that baserunner eventually scores.

In very true runs, no pitcher gets blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base. But any extra-inning pitcher who allows the baserunner to start at second base who eventually scores will get blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance one or two bases if that baserunner eventually scores.