Austin Davis starting pitcher preview for July 4th game vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Austin Davis pitching on Sunday, May 15th, 2022 at the Texas Rangers. (Photo credit: AP Photo/LM Otero https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/07/boston-red-sox-scratch-michael-wacha-name-austin-davis-starter-vs-rays-on-monday.html)

By: Evan Troxel

Boston Red Sox pitcher Austin Davis (1-1, 2.45 ERA) will make his second start of the regular season (and his second career Major League start) on Monday afternoon at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

The Red Sox will compete against the Tampa Bay Rays with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 p.m. Eastern Time.

Davis is one of the best pitchers on this Red Sox team so far this regular season regardless of whether Boston actually loses any one specific game or not.

He is the third-best pitcher on the team with a success rate of .763. Only Kevin Plawecki (1.000) and John Schreiber (.851) have pitched better this regular season in terms of getting the opponents out and not giving up runs.

While Davis has only pitched 29 1/3 innings this regular season (which is the second-most innings pitched among Red Sox pitchers who have started two or fewer games), he has the third-fewest actual losses (0.335) on the Red Sox (with only Plawecki and Schreiber better than him again).

Davis has appeared in 28 games this regular season, which is the fifth-highest on the team.

Austin Davis has only given up a run(s) or a partial run in six of his 28 appearances this regular season.

Boston has only won nine of those 28 games Davis has pitched in and the longest he has pitched in any of those nine victories is 1 1/3 innings.

He has given up a run(s) or a partial run in just four Boston losses this regular season.

That means 15 Red Sox losses that Austin Davis pitched in this regular season are not his fault at all!

Davis has only pitched 7 2/3 innings pitched this regular season in Red Sox wins.

Only Matt Barnes, Kevin Plawecki, Connor Seabold and Phillips Valdez have less innings pitched in Boston victories this regular season.

So out of Boston’s 44 wins this regular season, Davis has contributed a sum total of less than one win (of those 44 wins) so far.

Only Barnes, Plawecki, Seabold and Valdez have fewer actual wins than Davis on the Red Sox this regular season.

And what might be an extremely amazing thing is that Davis has the fifth-best actual win percentage (.714) among Red Sox pitchers so far this regular season.

With Boston only winning nine games in all of Davis’ appearances, you would expect him to not have such a good actual winning percentage.

But Davis does have a good actual winning percentage because he doesn’t give up a lot of runs and he has the third-fewest actual losses on the entire Red Sox pitching staff this regular season.

He has given up just 8 runs and 6.750 true runs and 6.750 very true runs this regular season.

Davis also would have the third-fewest actual losses for Boston (1.021) if the Red Sox lost every single game that a Boston pitcher gave up runs in.

So, in other words, he has been outstanding this year and he probably deserves to make it on the American League All-Star team.

Davis has the fourth-best ERA right now on the Red Sox and he also has a 2.07 true run average and a 2.07 very true run average which are both the third-best among Boston pitchers this regular season.

He actually has a 1.25 ERA in Boston losses this regular season and a 1.14 true run average and a 1.14 very true run average in Red Sox losses this regular season.

Those three stats are the second-best among Boston pitchers.

Austin Davis has been much worse when the Red Sox win than when they lose.

In Boston wins, he has a 5.87 ERA (which is ranked 19th among Red Sox pitchers), but he has a 4.70 true run average and a 4.70 very true run average (which are both ranked 18th among Boston pitchers).

If Boston actually would have won more of their games than they have this regular season, I have no doubt Austin Davis would be an All-Star (or at least he would or should be in serious consideration to be an All-Star) this year.

And he still should be an All-Star at this point of the regular season anyway!

But he likely won’t be an All-Star because he is not well-known, famous or popular in Major League Baseball which is a shame as the Red Sox lost nine straight games when Davis pitched from the April 23rd game until after the May 17th game.

Phillips Valdez also was a part of nine-straight Boston losses when he pitched on April 9th and until after the May 28th game.

It seems like the only reason Davis might not ultimately make the All-Star team is because the Red Sox have lost a lot of games this regular season that they should have won.

If Boston won five of those nine straight games they lost when Davis pitched, he looks a lot more valuable for the Boston Red Sox.

And if the Red Sox would have won ten of the 19 games they lost when Davis pitched, he again looks a lot more important and helpful for the Red Sox.

If Boston would have won the first ten games that they actually lost this regular season (when Davis pitched) and the nine games they did win (when Davis pitched), he would have 1.901 wins this regular season (in 19 wins), instead of the 0.837 actual wins (in nine wins) that he does have.

Also, if Boston had actually only lost the last nine games that they have lost when Davis has pitched, Davis would be only partially responsible for one of those nine losses.

He would have .091 actual losses this regular season. And when compared to 1.901 actual wins, his actual winning percentage would be .954, a sure lock to be an All-Star!

John Schreiber has very similar numbers to that. He has 2.191 actual wins this regular season and .167 actual losses for an actual winning percentage of .929.

Schreiber is an All-Star and there should be no way he is not an All-Star this season.

Davis also has just .335 actual losses (out of 35 Boston losses) this regular season. Most of the blame for Red Sox losses cannot be directed at him.

John Schreiber absolutely better be an All-Star this year, Nick Pivetta should be an All-Star if you forget about the fact that the Red Sox lost his first six starts, and Michael Wacha also probably deserves to be an All-Star too.

The Red Sox are 9-1 in Pivetta’s last 10 starts.

Austin Davis has pitched so well this year that he actually deserves to be an All-Star more than Nick Pivetta and Michael Wacha do.

Why?

Nick Pivetta has the most actual wins (6.933) and the most actual losses (3.425) on the Boston Red Sox right now, and Pivetta would be responsible for 9.241 actual losses if Boston lost every game Pivetta gave up runs in (which are the most actual losses among any Red Sox pitcher).

The bottom line is that Nick Pivetta made too many mistakes in his first six starts of the regular season and he is perhaps the least deserving to be an All-Star among most (if not all) the Red Sox pitchers as he has costed the Red Sox the most wins on the pitching side of things.

Michael Wacha would have been responsible for 6.319 actual losses if Boston lost every single game Wacha gave up runs in this regular season. That is the third-worst on the team.

Wacha is better than Nick Pivetta so far this regular season.

Wacha perhaps does not deserve to be an All-Star as he has benefited from the Red Sox winning games while Nick Pivetta did not benefit in his first six starts of the regular season.

The bottom line is that Wacha is the ninth-best pitcher on the Red Sox right now and if he was truly outstanding and deserved to be an All-Star, he would probably be ranked higher than that.

Rich Hill would have been responsible for 8.213 actual losses if the Red Sox lost every single game Hill gave up runs in this regular season. That is the second-worst on the team.

It seems like perhaps Austin Davis would have a lot more innings pitched already (and it is perhaps likely he would have failed) if Boston manager Alex Cora did not try to have every relief pitcher on the Red Sox throw about the same amount of innings pitched at this point in the regular season.

So, in other words, Alex Cora has protected the entire Boston pitching staff and made Austin Davis an All-Star! (Or a potential All-Star)!

Without the Boston pitchers that no one except the extremely die-hard Red Sox fans had heard of before this regular season, without Tyler Danish and John Schreiber pitching (and also Kutter Crawford contributing) this regular season, Austin Davis likely does not have the good-looking numbers he has right now.

Finally, since Austin Davis pitched on June 18th, he has only pitched once. That was on June 27th.

Perhaps Alex Cora has been planning for Austin Davis to pitch more than just a couple of innings for the past week or two, knowing that this could actually happen (where he would need to use Austin Davis as a starter) at any time.

...

All statistics in this story are to be interpreted after the Sunday, July 3rd, 2022 game and before the Monday, July 4th, 2022 game.

NOTE #1: Very true run average and true run average include all runs scored. So they are not like earned runs. Very true run average is more accurate than true run average because it doesn't blame a pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base in extra innings. True run average blames the pitcher for allowing a baserunner to start on second base to start extra innings. Other than that, very true run average and true run average are more accurate and truthful than earned run average (earned runs) and run average (runs).

...

EXPLANATION OF ACTUAL WINS AND LOSSES (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers depending on the Boston Red Sox win/loss result for any one specific game

The "wins" are all games that the Boston Red Sox actually won. The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each pitcher. All of the percentages of innings pitched (of games the Red Sox actually won) are then added together to get "wins", which is what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score. These percentages of how many runs a pitcher allows in any one game to score are then added together for every game (and only of the games that the Red Sox actually lost) to get "losses". Pitchers who start any extra inning are blamed for allowing a baserunner to start the inning at second base (and any other additional bases they allow that baserunner to advance) if that baserunner eventually scores. The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

The above paragraph talks about true runs and not very true runs when a pitcher allows a run(s). Otherwise, everything else can apply to anything that has to do with true runs and very true runs.

WON-LOST RECORDS (TRUE RUNS)

Matt Barnes .556 wins and 2.433 losses (.187 win pct.), 8.47 true run average, 9.53 run average, 7.94 earned run average

Ryan Brasier 1.359 wins and 2.615 losses (.342 win pct.), 5.56 true run average, 4.45 run average, 4.15 earned run average

Kutter Crawford 1.037 wins and 1.357 losses (.433 win pct.), 6.41 true run average, 6.86 run average, 6.41 earned run average

Tyler Danish 1.444 wins and 1.302 losses (.526 win pct.), 4.45 true run average, 4.61 run average, 4.28 earned run average

Austin Davis .837 wins and .330 losses (.717 win pct.), 2.07 true run average, 2.45 run average, 2.45 earned run average

Jake Diekman 2.160 wins and 1.717 losses (.557 win pct.), 4.45 true run average, 3.81 run average, 2.86 earned run average

Nathan Eovaldi 3.963 wins and 2.876 losses (.579 win pct.), 3.69 true run average, 3.69 run average, 3.16 earned run average

Rich Hill 4.185 wins and 3.296 losses (.559 win pct.), 4.49 true run average, 4.59 run average, 4.20 earned run average

Tanner Houck 3.365 wins and 2.924 losses (.535 win pct.), 3.28 true run average, 3.65 run average, 3.47 earned run average

Nick Pivetta 6.933 wins and 3.394 losses (.671 win pct.), 3.02 true run average, 3.23 run average, 3.23 earned run average

Kevin Plawecki .000 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.), 0.00 true run average, 0.00 run average, 0.00 earned run average

Hansel Robles 1.389 wins and 2.563 losses (.351 win pct.), 6.46 true run average, 6.85 run average, 5.70 earned run average

Hirokazu Sawamura 1.315 wins and 2.466 losses (.348 win pct.), 5.52 true run average, 3.07 run average, 2.45 earned run average

John Schreiber 2.191 wins and .167 losses (.929 win pct.), 1.05 true run average, 1.05 run average, 0.70 earned run average

Connor Seabold .364 wins and 1.000 losses (.267 win pct.), 8.31 true run average, 8.31 run average, 8.31 earned run average

Matt Strahm 2.021 wins and .461 losses (.814 win pct.), 4.47 true run average, 5.11 run average, 4.01 earned run average

Phillips Valdez .222 wins and .828 losses (.212 win pct.), 4.89 true run average, 5.40 run average, 5.40 earned run average

Michael Wacha 5.667 wins and 2.071 losses (.732 win pct.), 2.94 true run average, 2.94 run average, 2.69 earned run average

Garrett Whitlock 3.104 wins and 1.533 losses (.669 win pct.), 3.79 true run average, 3.88 run average, 3.51 earned run average

Josh Winckowski 1.889 wins and 1.667 losses (.531 win pct.), 3.46 true run average, 3.46 run average, 3.12 earned run average

NOTE #2: For the purposes of this story alone, no pitcher is blamed for allowing a baserunner to start any extra inning at second base (but any pitcher who pitches in extra innings will be blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance any additional bases if that baserunner eventually scores). The previous sentence talks about very true runs and not true runs.

WON-LOST RECORDS (VERY TRUE RUNS)

Matt Barnes .556 wins and 2.416 losses (.187 win pct.), 7.68 very true run average, 9.53 run average, 7.94 earned run average

Ryan Brasier 1.359 wins and 2.624 losses (.341 win pct.), 5.56 very true run average, 4.45 run average, 4.15 earned run average

Kutter Crawford 1.037 wins and 1.290 losses (.446 win pct.), 6.18 very true run average, 6.86 run average, 6.41 earned run average

Tyler Danish 1.444 wins and 1.302 losses (.526 win pct.), 4.45 very true run average, 4.61 run average, 4.28 earned run average

Austin Davis 0.837 wins and .335 losses (.714 win pct.), 2.07 very true run average, 2.45 run average, 2.45 earned run average

Jake Diekman 2.160 wins and 1.690 losses (.561 win pct.), 4.13 very true run average, 3.81 run average, 2.86 earned run average

Nathan Eovaldi 3.963 wins and 2.976 losses (.571 win pct.), 3.69 very true run average, 3.69 run average, 3.16 earned run average

Rich Hill 4.185 wins and 3.296 losses (.559 win pct.), 4.49 very true run average, 4.59 run average, 4.20 earned run average

Tanner Houck 3.365 wins and 2.924 losses (.535 win pct.), 3.28 very true run average, 3.65 run average, 3.47 earned run average

Nick Pivetta 6.933 wins and 3.425 losses (.669 win pct.), 3.02 very true run average, 3.23 run average, 3.23 earned run average

Kevin Plawecki .000 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.), 0.00 very true run average, 0.00 run average, 0.00 earned run average

Hansel Robles 1.389 wins and 2.632 losses (.345 win pct.), 6.46 very true run average, 6.85 run average, 5.70 earned run average

Hirokazu Sawamura 1.315 wins and 2.317 losses (.362 win pct, 5.37 very true run average, 3.07 run average, 2.45 earned run average

John Schreiber 2.191 wins and .167 losses (.929 win pct.), 1.05 very true run average, 1.05 run average, 0.70 earned run average

Connor Seabold .364 wins and 1.000 losses (.267 win pct.), 8.31 very true run average, 8.31 run average, 8.31 earned run average

Matt Strahm 2.021 wins and .465 losses (.813 win pct.), 4.47 very true run average, 5.11 run average, 4.01 earned run average

Phillips Valdez .222 wins and .828 losses (.212 win pct.), 4.89 very true run average, 5.40 run average, 5.40 earned run average

Michael Wacha 5.667 wins and 2.071 losses (.732 win pct.), 2.94 very true run average, 2.94 run average, 2.69 earned run average

Garrett Whitlock 3.104 wins and 1.577 losses (.663 win pct.), 3.79 very true run average, 3.88 run average, 3.51 earned run average

Josh Winckowski 1.889 wins and 1.667 losses (.531 win pct.), 3.46 very true run average, 3.46 run average, 3.12 earned run average

EXPLANATION OF A PITCHER'S PERFORMANCE (FOR TRUE RUNS AND VERY TRUE RUNS):

Actual won-lost records in the 2022 regular season for Boston Red Sox pitchers not depending on whether the Boston Red Sox actually win any one specific game or not.

In other words, this tells the complete picture of their entire regular season (the good and the bad) of how many people the pitcher got out (innings pitched) and how many runs the pitcher truthfully gave up (which is more accurate than runs or even earned runs given up). So to make this more easy for people to understand, starting pitchers (or the previous pitcher) don't 100% get blamed for the inherited runner(s) that the reliever(s) (or the next pitcher to pitch) allows to score. The starter (or previous pitcher) will get 25%, 50% or 75% blame for giving up one run instead, for an inherited runner that eventually scores.

Also, a pitcher can get a partial win and a partial loss in the same game. So pitchers that throw more innings pitched are going to get a higher percentage of partial wins and pitchers who give up more runs are going to get a higher percentage of partial losses. So if one pitcher pitches a complete game he will get one win (regardless of the team's win/loss result) and if the pitcher's team actually loses that same game in which he was the only pitcher who pitched for his team, he will also get credit for one loss.

The only time any pitcher cannot take a loss or a partial loss is if the winning team doesn't give up any runs to the team they are playing.

Basically, this is truly giving credit where credit is due among pitchers only.

The "wins" are percentages of innings pitched for each game for each pitcher. All of the percentages of each game are then added together and the sum total of all percentages for each game are "wins" (whether the Red Sox actually won that specific game or not) and are what you see below. The "losses" can be thought of as the percentage of runs that any one pitcher allowed the opposing team to score for each game. All of the percentages of runs given up for each game are then added together and the sum total of all of those numbers are the "losses" and what you see below. The "losses" presented here are represented as the total number of potential losses that a pitcher could have if the Red Sox actually lost every single game in which a pitcher gave up a run(s). The winning percentage is wins divided by wins plus losses.

NOTE #3: To not confuse people, in true runs, extra-inning pitchers do get blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if they score. In true runs, I have always blamed the extra-inning pitcher for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base, if that baserunner eventually scores.

Matt Barnes 1.902 wins and 3.017 losses (.387 win pct.) 17 innings pitched

Ryan Brasier 3.415 wins and 4.982 losses (.407 win pct.) 30 1/3 innings pitched

Kutter Crawford 2.162 wins and 1.678 losses (.563 win pct.) 19 2/3 innings pitched

Tyler Danish 3.090 wins and 2.177 losses (.587 win pct.) 27 1/3 innings pitched

Austin Davis 3.294 wins and 1.016 losses (.764 win pct.) 29 1/3 innings pitched

Jake Diekman 3.093 wins and 3.440 losses (.473 win pct.) 28 1/3 innings pitched

Nathan Eovaldi 7.616 wins and 5.661 losses (.574 win pct.) 68 1/3 innings pitched

Rich Hill 8.042 wins and 8.213 losses (.495 win pct.) 70 2/3 innings pitched

Tanner Houck 5.559 wins and 4.241 losses (.567 win pct.) 49 1/3 innings pitched

Nick Pivetta 10.558 wins and 9.211 losses (.534 win pct.) 94 2/3 innings pitched

Kevin Plawecki .125 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.) 1 inning pitched

Hansel Robles 2.622 wins and 4.396 losses (.374 win pct.) 23 2/3 innings pitched

Hirokazu Sawamura 3.272 wins and 2.627 losses (.555 win pct.) 29 1/3 innings pitched

John Schreiber 2.851 wins and 0.500 losses (.851 win pct.) 25 2/3 innings pitched

Connor Seabold .364 wins and 1.500 losses (.195 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Matt Strahm 2.687 wins and 3.445 losses (.438 win pct.) 24 2/3 innings pitched

Phillips Valdez 1.537 wins and 1.328 losses (.537 win pct.) 13 1/3 innings pitched

Michael Wacha 7.963 wins and 6.319 losses (.558 win pct.) 70 1/3 innings pitched

Garrett Whitlock 5.292 wins and 5.583 losses (.487 win pct.) 48 2/3 innings pitched

Josh Winckowski 2.972 wins and 3.667 losses (.448 win pct.) 26 innings pitched

In very true runs, no pitcher gets blamed for allowing an opposing baserunner to start any extra inning at second base. But any extra-inning pitcher who allows the baserunner to start at second base who eventually scores will get blamed for allowing that baserunner to advance one or two bases if that baserunner eventually scores.

Matt Barnes 1.902 wins and 2.999 losses (.388 win pct.) 17 innings pitched

Ryan Brasier 3.415 wins and 4.990 losses (.406 win pct.) 30 1/3 innings pitched

Kutter Crawford 2.162 wins and 1.611 losses (.573 win pct.) 19 2/3 innings pitched

Tyler Danish 3.090 wins and 2.177 losses (.587 win pct.) 27 1/3 innings pitched

Austin Davis 3.294 wins and 1.021 losses (.763 win pct.) 29 1/3 innings pitched

Jake Diekman 3.093 wins and 3.306 losses (.483 win pct.) 28 1/3 innings pitched

Nathan Eovaldi 7.616 wins and 5.833 losses (.566 win pct.) 68 1/3 innings pitched

Rich Hill 8.042 wins and 8.213 losses (.495 win pct.) 70 2/3 innings pitched

Tanner Houck 5.559 wins and 4.241 losses (.567 win pct.) 49 1/3 innings pitched

Nick Pivetta 10.558 wins and 9.241 losses (.533 win pct.) 94 2/3 innings pitched

Kevin Plawecki .125 wins and .000 losses (Plawecki hasn't given up any runs or partial runs yet, so that means he's perfect. He also has not appeared in a game yet as a pitcher that the Boston Red Sox actually won. 1.000 win pct.) 1 inning pitched

Hansel Robles 2.622 wins and 4.501 losses (.368 win pct.) 23 2/3 innings pitched

Hirokazu Sawamura 3.272 wins and 2.477 losses (.569 win pct.) 29 1/3 innings pitched

John Schreiber 2.851 wins and 0.500 losses (.851 win pct.) 25 2/3 innings pitched

Connor Seabold .364 wins and 1.500 losses (.195 win pct.) 8 2/3 innings pitched

Matt Strahm 2.687 wins and 3.448 losses (.438 win pct.) 24 2/3 innings pitched

Phillips Valdez 1.537 wins and 1.328 losses (.537 win pct.) 13 1/3 innings pitched

Michael Wacha 7.963 wins and 6.319 losses (.558 win pct.) 70 1/3 innings pitched

Garrett Whitlock 5.292 wins and 5.627 losses (.485 win pct.) 48 2/3 innings pitched

Josh Winckowski 2.972 wins and 3.667 losses (.448 win pct.) 26 innings pitched